Eurozone crisis: Leaders must make 'grand bargain' at summit
When European leaders meet in Brussels this week, they must reach a 'grand bargain' that addresses both immediate and long-term solutions to the eurozone crisis. Proposals to date, including by Merkel of Germany and Sarkozy of France, must go further.
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Their plan, though, would require amending treaties – not easy to do, given that treaty changes require unanimous agreement.Skip to next paragraph
At their summit, if European leaders are not able to fix the immediate crisis, there may not be a euro left to save in the long run. And without addressing the long-term problems and assuring Germany (and others) that fiscal reforms are on the way, Germany is unlikely to tone down its opposition to necessary monetary actions in the short-term.
Yes, a grand bargain is needed. However, only a smaller agreement along the lines of the German-French proposal seems possible for now.
While this promise of longer-term action might momentarily halt the downward spiral of the crisis, it is far from certain that these limited treaty changes will be sufficient to stabilize the currency over time.
Tougher budget rules have been installed and subsequently broken before. Moreover, while such rules may have prevented a Greek-style crisis, they would have been futile in the cases of Ireland and Spain, because both countries were actually running budget surpluses before the current crisis.
In order to tackle the underlying causes of the euro crisis in full, at least two more steps will be necessary.
First, it seems likely that some form of jointly issued eurobonds will be required to assure markets of the safety of European sovereign debt. But strict conditions will have to be attached to the bonds in order to convince Germany and the central bank.
Second, trade imbalances within the eurozone, a root cause of the crisis, will have to be addressed. This is another sensitive issue for Germany, because its economy is so export-driven.
Thus even greater coordination of economic policy among the eurozone countries will be crucial, if a repeat of the current crisis is to be avoided.
Commentators have long lambasted Europe’s “muddling through” approach to the euro crisis. But the Europeans have come a long way over the past two years. Incremental steps taken at every turn of the crisis, more often than not deemed insufficient at the time by financial markets, trace a remarkable shift in policy when looked at as a whole.
The problem now, however, is that the magnitude of the crisis is such that muddling through is no longer feasible. In the current volatile environment, any minor misstep risks sending Europe’s economy over the cliff, possibly dragging the United States down with it. Under these unprecedented circumstances, it is time for Europe to make a big deal, not another half-way one.
Peter Sparding is a program officer in the Economic Policy Program of the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. The views expressed are his own.