Outlook on China: peaceful partner or warmonger?

While there is some evidence to support the presumption that China will become adversarial, others see China becoming a status quo power seeking peaceful relations with the rest of the global community.

For these experts, the potential for hostile US-China relations is all the more reason to encourage Beijing's integration into the global economic and trading system, which may undermine China's propensity to base its interests simply in military terms.

To put a twist on the old saying, so long as goods cross borders, soldiers won't. Nations that trade and cooperate are less likely to go to war, and given today's economic climate, it's hoped that Chinese and American strategic interests are converging because of economic interdependence.

Economic interdependence, of course, doesn't preclude war. Strong trade ties between Britain and Germany didn't prevent the outbreak of World War I. Nations may be willing to forgo economic gains if it conflicts with their strategic interests.

One potential flash point between the United States and China is Taiwan. Many believe that the US is committed to protect the peace and security of Taiwan from coercion by Beijing under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.

In recent years, China has devoted a substantial portion of its financial resources toward the transformation of its military, in order to deter, coerce, and potentially defeat outside intervention in a Taiwan Strait crisis. Taiwan's current president, Ma Ying-Jeou, has placated Beijing by stating there would be no attempt to seek independence of the island during his term.

While China will not inevitably threaten the US, how America responds in the face of its rise as a great power will have profound implications on US-China relations. For instance, should lawmakers in Washington enact overtly hostile policies that further weaken China's trade-dependent economy, the blowback could be substantial.

The current global downturn could very well be the catalyst for collective upheaval within China. But leaders in Washington must recognize that their own actions, such as pushing legislation that obliquely blames China for the loss of American jobs or chastising Chinese leaders for adapting inadequately to the global free-market system, harms efforts to stabilize the global economy and marginalizes Chinese citizens who want stronger ties to the West and greater liberalization at home.

• Malou Innocent is foreign-policy analyst at the Cato Institute.

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