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Outlook on China: peaceful partner or warmonger?

Economic difficulty could impel Beijing to sow regional conflict. American policies shouldn't add fuel to the fire.

By Malou Innocent / February 26, 2009


For more than 30 years, free and open markets have propelled China's labor-driven growth and lifted more than 200 million of its citizens out of rural poverty. But America's recent economic downturn has hit China hard. Exports from its booming trade sector dropped 17.5 percent in January from a year ago. In the past several months, an estimated 20 million rural Chinese migrant workers have lost their jobs.

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China's rising unemployment could lead to increased social unrest, and challenge the authority of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Throughout 30 years of liberal reform, the CCP has justified its authoritarian grip through the promise of economic advancement.

If it can't maintain the steady growth it's promised, experts fear the country's leaders might bolster their legitimacy by other means, such as exploiting Chinese nationalism and directing popular discontent toward outside targets.

Given the severity of the financial crisis, China will be entering a stressful and possibly turbulent period. America must be careful not to adopt policies that risk making the history of great power conflict come to fruition.

One fear is that as China's military strength grows, Beijing may pursue more aggressive geopolitical strategies in the South China Sea, one of the largest and most heavily trafficked shipping routes in the world.

For example, China has expressed its desire to recapture the Malampaya and Camago natural gas fields from the Philippines, among other islands that offer strategic importance and/or natural resources to quench China's thirst for energy.

It's a desire that's been acted on before.

In 1988, China's Navy destroyed Vietnamese battleships in skirmishes over the Spratly archipelago. And in 1995, Beijing successfully took control of Mischief Reef, previously claimed by the Philippines, building structures that critics said were of a military nature. (China said they were necessary to protect its fishermen.)

It's no wonder that East Asian capitals are uneasy about China's growing maritime clout.

"Few in Asia doubt that having succeeded once, China will try again," explains Arthur Waldron, a professor of international relations at the University of Pennsylvania.

China's military modernization also has implications for US national security. Rising powers have historically brought greater instability to the international system.

In a comprehensive examination of the causes of major wars, A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler suggest in "The War Ledger" that as a country's power increases, its willingness to seek change in the international system will be heightened. "It is this shift that destabilizes the system and begins the slide toward war," they write.