Paper Economy

The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage rates went flat at 3.66 percent since last week. (SoldAtTheTop)

MBA: Mortgage rates flat at 3.66 percent

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.27.13

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. 

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. 

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 3.66% since last week while the purchase application volume declined a notable 5% and the refinance application volume declined 3% over the same period. 

Home sales climbing 0.4 percent since December 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors' Existing Home Sales Report. (SoldAtTheTop)

Home sales climb in January

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.21.13

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January showing a slight monthly improvement in sales with total home sales climbing 0.4% since December and climbing 9.1% above the level seen in January 2012. 

Single family home sales also improved slightly rising 0.2% from December and still rising 8.5% above the level seen in January 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 12.6% above the level seen a year earlier. 

Inventory of single family homes declined notably from December to 1.55 million units dropping 25.5% below the level seen in January 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.3 months. 

Jobless claims rose to 362,000 claims from 342,000 claims for the prior week, according to the latest data. (SoldAtTheTop)

Jobless claims jump to 362,000

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.21.13

Today’s jobless claims report showed a jump to both initial unemployment claims and continued jobless claims as initial claims trended below the closely watched 400K level. 

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by a whopping 20,000 to 362,000 claims from 342,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 11,000 claims to 3.148 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%. 

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls. 

Currently there are some 1.84 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. 

Taken together with the latest 3.66 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.51 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls. 

Single family housing permits rose 1.9 percent from December 2012. (SoldAtTheTop)

A mixed January for residential construction

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.20.13

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results for January with increases for single family permits and starts but a notable 8.5% monthly decline for total starts. 

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, rose 1.9% from December to 584K single family units (SAAR), and increased 29.2% above the level seen in January 2012 but still remained an astonishing 67.52% below the peak in September 2005. 

Single family housing starts increased 0.8% from December to 613K units (SAAR), and rose 20.0% above the level seen in January 2012 but still remained 66.37% below the peak set in early 2006. 

The National Association of Home Builders' composite Housing Market Index fell to 46 in February 2013. (SoldAtTheTop)

NAHB: Housing activity falls in February

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.19.13

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI)showing that assesments of housing activity declined slightly in February with the composite HMI index falling to 46 while the "buyer traffic" index fell more notably to 32.

It's important to note that February showed a flattening of sorts to future expectations, a development that is worth noting as the new home market moves through it's most active months at the start of the year (see Bob Tolls explanation for January - early spring being the new home markets most active period annually).

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply. 

Total industrial production declined by 0.10 percent in January 2013 but rose 2.10 percent above the level seen in January 2012. (SoldAtTheTop)

Industrial production down in January

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.15.13

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a decline in January with total industrial production falling 0.10% since December but rising 2.10% above the level seen in January 2012. 

Capacity utilization also declined dropping 0.27% from December but still climbing a slight 0.46% above the level seen in January of 2012 to stand at 79.06%

 
It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007. 

The average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased 1 basis point to 3.64 percent since last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. (SoldAtTheTop)

MBA: Mortgage rates rise to 3.64 percent

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.13.13

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. 

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. 

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis point to 3.64% since last week while the purchase application volume declined a notable 10% and the refinance application volume declined 6% over the same period. 

Individuals receiving food stamp benefits increased to 47.69 million in November 2012, according to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture. (SoldAtTheTop)

Food stamp use rises in November

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.11.13

As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn, participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.
In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has dwarfed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.

The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in November, 141,067 recipients were added to the food stamps program with the current total increasing 3.04% on a year-over-year basis.

Individuals receiving food stamp benefits increased to 47.69 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population, increased 1.46% on the month to now stand at a whopping 19.53% of the population.  ( Continue… )

Jobless claims declined by 5,000 from the prior week. Currently there are some 1.82 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. (SoldAtTheTop)

Jobless claims drop to 366,000

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 02.07.13

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial unemployment claims and an increase to continued jobless claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. 
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 5,000 to 366,000 claims from 371,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 8,000 claims to 3.224 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.5%. 

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls. 

Currently there are some 1.82 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. 

Taken together with the latest 3.67 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.50 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.