Paper Economy

Tuesday's New Residential Home Sales Report for February 2013 showed a notable monthly decline with sales falling 4.6 percent from January. (SoldAtTheTop)

Home sales slip 4.6 percent in February

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.27.13

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for February showing a notable monthly decline with sales falling 4.6% from January but rising 12.3% above the level seen in February 2012 but still remaining at an historically low level of 411K SAAR units. 

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes appears to be mounting as unsold units totaled 152K, still though near the lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale rose to 5.0. 

The monthly supply increased to 4.4 months while the median selling price increased 2.88% and the average selling price increased 14.49% from the year ago level. 

Home prices rose a slight 0.16 percent in January 2013, according to the latest home prices data from S&P/Case-Shiller. (SoldAtTheTop)

Case-Shiller: Home prices up slightly in January

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.26.13

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for January reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased again rising a slight 0.16% since December while the Composite-20 index increased 0.13% over the same period. 

The latest CSI data is beginning to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up, even just slightly, in the face of typical lower seasonal transactions. 

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may just remain flat into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 7.25% as compared to January 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 8.08% over the same period.   ( Continue… )

The latest jobless claims report shows an increase of 2,000 to 336,000 jobless claims from 334,000 claims for the prior week. (SoldAtTheTop)

Jobless claims rise to 336,000

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.21.13

Today’s jobless claims report showed a increases to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. 

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 2,000 to 336,000 claims from 334,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 5,000 claims to 3.053 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%. 

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls. 

Currently there are some 1.78 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. 

Taken together with the latest 3.04 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.82 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls. 

The latest mortgage rates data from the Mortgage Bankers Association is showing that mortgage rates went flat at 3.67 percent since last week. (SoldAtTheTop)

MBA: Mortgage rates stay flat at 3.67 percent

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.20.13

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. 

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. 

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 3.67% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 4% and the refinance application volume declined 8% over the same period. 

Single-family housing permits rose 2.7 percent from January 2013 to 600,000 single family units, and increased 25.52 percent above the level seen in February 2012. (SoldAtTheTop)

Housing construction shows broad growth in February

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.19.13

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed broad improvement in February with solid increases for both single family permits and starts as well as improvement for total housing starts. 

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, rose 2.7% from January to 600K single family units (SAAR), and increased 25.52% above the level seen in February 2012 but still remained an astonishing 66.63% below the peak in September 2005. 

Single family housing starts increased 0.5% from December to 618K units (SAAR), and rose 31.49% above the level seen in February 2012 but still remained 66.10% below the peak set in early 2006. 

Housing market activity declined in March, according to the National Association of Home Builders' latest Housing Market Index. (SoldAtTheTop)

Housing market activity drops in March

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.18.13

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assesments of housing activity declined in March with the composite HMI index falling to 44 while the "buyer traffic" index inscreased to 35.

It's important to note that March continued to show a flattening of sorts to future expectations, a development that is worth noting as the new home market moves through it's most active months at the start of the year (see Bob Tolls explanation for January - early spring being the new home markets most active period annually).

While all indicators have made truly spectacular improvements this year, it's important to note that conditions still remain fairly distressed by historic standards.

Although, looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last few months of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply. 

The Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization Friday, showing a notable increase in February with total industrial production climbing 0.71 percent since January. (SoldAtTheTop)

Industrial production rises in February

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.15.13

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a notable increase in February with total industrial production climbing 0.71% since January and rising 2.52% above the level seen in February 2012. 

Capacity utilization also rise climbing 0.55% from January rising 0.83% above the level seen in February of 2012 to stand at 79.63% 

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007. 

Jobless claims fell to 332,000 claims from 342,000 claims for the prior week, according to the latest jobless claims report. (SoldAtTheTop)

Jobless claims drop by 10,000

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.14.13

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. 

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 10,000 to 332,000 claims from 342,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 89,000 claims to 3.024 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%.

 
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls. 

Currently there are some 1.91 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. 

Taken together with the latest 3.61 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.52 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls. 

The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage rates jumped to 3.67 percent since the last week. (SoldAtTheTop)

Mortgage rates rise to 3.67 percent

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 03.13.13

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. 

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. 

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 9 basis points to 3.67% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 5% over the same period.