Attention, shoppers! Food prices are rising.

Even if you never set foot in a supermarket, track commodity prices, or buy wheat futures, you probably have noticed this trend: Food prices are going up.

Nan Braun knows. Since Thanksgiving, "I've been paying at least another $50 a month more for food for the family," says the Kokomo, Ind., resident. She's responded by purchasing some foods in bulk when they're on sale – and buying flour for making bread.

Susan Unger-Grossman of New York City has noticed a change. The price of the box of single-serving coffee packets she often buys hasn't changed, but the number of packets per box has dropped from 24 to 18. "That means if you'd buy three boxes of the coffee, you'd be losing the equivalent of a whole box," she points out.

These changes are early hints of a much broader increase in food prices that should come later this year. The rise in commodity food and energy prices will boost costs at the grocery store this year anywhere from 2 to 4 percent – or possibly even higher, analysts forecast. That's not unprecedented. A rise of 2 to 3 percent in consumer food prices would mark a return "toward the historical average" food inflation rate, according to the US Department of Agriculture. It just feels huge because last year, consumers' price of food inched up only 0.8 percent – the lowest food inflation rate since 1962, according to the USDA.

Some foods will go up in price more than others. Shoppers can expect a rise of 2.5 to 3.5 percent for beef and 4.5 to 5.5 percent for dairy products, the USDA forecasts. But nonalcoholic beverages will post price increases of only 1 to 2 percent.

Commodity food prices are rising now because improving diets are fueling world demand for food even as agricultural supplies are tightening. Cattle herds have thinned, and weather problems, including floods, droughts, and wildfires, have hurt crop output in such key crop-growing areas as Russia and Australia. The result, experts say, is a surge in raw materials prices.

For example: Wheat prices leapt 47 percent last year on the futures market. In January, cattle futures hit a record high. Even as world demand rises, "supplies of raw materials for food are even tighter this year than in 2008" – when most agricultural commodity prices hit all-time highs, says Terry Roggensack, a partner at The Hightower Report, a Chicago-based forecaster of commodity and financial futures. He expects most commodity food prices – except for wheat – to hit record highs this year.

In turn, rises in energy prices boost the cost of food production and transportation.

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