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Potomac primaries: Obama holds momentum

Clinton's recovery plan counts on the big-state contests on March 4.

By Linda Feldmann

from the February 12, 2008 edition

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Washington - Barack Obama's sweep of five caucuses last weekend, all by wide margins, hands the Illinois senator clear momentum heading into Tuesday's Potomac primary contests.

And there may be no relief in sight for his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Rodham Clinton, until March 4, Super Tuesday Junior. Then, the two face off in two big-delegate states – Texas and Ohio – plus Vermont and Rhode Island.

Senator Obama is expected to win Feb. 12 in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia, where the demographics work to his advantage – large black populations and sizable pockets of white-collar voters. The Clinton camp is playing down its chances there, as well as in the Feb. 19 contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii.

Aside from Texas and Ohio, where Senator Clinton is strong with the big Hispanic and blue-collar populations, the last fire wall in her "big state" strategy is Pennsylvania, which votes April 22. The question, though, is how momentum-proof her campaign is.

"You get a roll going and all of a sudden those sure-bet states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas don't become sure bets anymore," says Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "And all [Obama] has to do is breach the wall in one of them, and the flood tide will come roaring through."

The distress in Clinton's campaign is evident. On Sunday, her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, a longtime aide, stepped down and was replaced by Maggie Williams, a former top aide to Clinton from her days as first lady. Ms. Williams joined the campaign as an adviser after Clinton lost the Iowa caucuses, and she is credited with helping the senator add a more inspiring tone to her speeches.

After Obama's weekend victories in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, and the US Virgin Islands, the delegate contest between him and Clinton has grown even tighter.

Each is a little over halfway to the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination, with Clinton at 1,148 and Obama at 1,121, according to CNN. Obama leads among "pledged delegates" – those earned in primaries and caucuses – while Clinton leads among "superdelegates," party leaders and elected officials who can back whomever they want. Behind the scenes, the campaigns are wooing superdelegates as assiduously as they are fighting for voters.

In Tuesday's primaries, the latest polls from Mason-Dixon show Obama leading Clinton in Maryland and Virginia with nearly identical numbers – 53 percent to 35 percent in Maryland and 53 percent to 37 percent in Virginia. There has been no polling in the District of Columbia, but with more than 50 percent of the population African-American and a healthy swath of educated white voters, Obama will win handily here.

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