Charred: Nelly Chepchumba (l.) inspected the remains of her school last week after it was burned down in ethnic violence that has now claimed more than 850 lives. Ben Curtis/AP

On the run: Two Kikuyu men fled Sunday with their livestock from an area under attack near Nakuru. Recent clashes in western Kenya have pushed the postelection death toll up past 850. Ben Curtis/AP

Progress: Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki (c.) shook hands with opposition leader Raila Odinga (r.) last week during an ongoing peace effort by former UN chief Kofi Annan (l.). Riccardo Gangale/AP

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How can Kenya avoid ethnic war?

Former UN chief Kofi Annan launched formal peace talks Tuesday as a fresh round of reprisal killings swept the country.

from the January 30, 2008 edition

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Reporter Scott Baldauf describes the Kenyan refugee camp he visited.

	How Kenya came undone Kenya's infamous Mungiki sect gears up for reprisals
	How can Kenya avoid ethnic war? One man helps moderates tackle the roots of Kenya's ethnic rifts

The risks of a prolonged impasse were made plain Tuesday when an opposition parliamentarian was gunned down outside his home in Nairobi in what Mr. Odinga called a "planned political assassination." Ethnic fighting quickly broke out in slums throughout the capital as news of the killing spread. The unrest came as police and military forces tried to quell a fresh wave of reprisal killings in Rift Valley towns where the president's ethnic group, the Kikuyus, are dominant.

International mediation efforts run into snags

At least half a dozen high-level mediators – from Archibishop Desmond Tutu to African Union chief John Kufuor – have come to Kenya in the past four weeks. Each of these efforts failed to end the crisis, although former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's current visit achieved a meeting and handshake between Mr. Kibaki and Odinga last week.

Annan launched formal talks Tuesday saying he hoped immediate political issues could be resolved within four weeks and the broader, underlying issues within a year.

Odinga claims that the election was stolen from him through massive rigging of the voter tallies. Kibaki calls himself the "duly elected" president, and calls on Odinga to take his complaints to court.

Observers close to the negotiations say that both sides came close to agreeing to a settlement two weeks ago during Mr. Kufuor's visit. During that mediation effort, both sides contributed to a document that spelled out a powersharing agreement. But insiders say that hard-liners in Kibaki's camp persuaded the president to reject the document in the final hours.

Previous mediation efforts haven't provided breakthroughs, but they contributed to the process of softening the two sides, Mr. Grignon adds. "Both parties are revising their options of what they are ready to accept," says Grignon, adding that there is still a long way to go. "Right now, the government says to the opposition, 'Go to the courts and shut up.' And [Odinga's party] says, 'Step down, or we're burning the country.' "

Such hardened stands, meant to project strength ahead of negotiations, may not convey the degree to which Kibaki and Odinga are willing to compromise, Grignon and others say. And while an actual agreement may not come in the current round of negotiations, the very fact that the two sides have met in person, and are continuing to talk, is itself a sign of progress.

But a political settlement is just one of many steps required for Kenya to return to the stability it once enjoyed.

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