General Petraeus says violence is down in Iraq, but warns continued success is not guaranteed

Gen. David Petraeus, the senior US commander in Iraq, said Thursday that rates of violence there are at their lowest point in two years.

But his data also show that rates of violence remain high, and warned against reading too much into short-term improvements, the Associated Press reports.

He said that around Thanksgiving commanders looked back at violence levels a year ago, and six months ago, and found a declining line in which violence had declined from a time when hundreds of Iraqis were killed and injured and US troops took heavy losses in a number of horrific attacks, to a time of still somewhat steady but less deadly attacks, to a day last month when there were just 45-50 attacks

Speaking to reporters at the U.S. military's Camp Victory, he said the improved security is due to a number of factors including a "a reduction in some of the signature attacks that are associated with weapons provided by Iran," as well as a cease-fire called by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr that he said had a particularly noticeable impact what had been one of the most violent areas of Baghdad

Nobody says anything about turning a corner, seeing lights at the end of tunnels, any of those other phrases," said Petraeus. "You just keep your head down and keep moving."

Petraeus's briefing came before he was to meet Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who is on a short trip to Iraq. Reuters reports that the general sought to temper optimism, particularly in regards to the presence of Al Qaeda-aligned fighters inside the country.

We have to be careful not to get feeling too successful," General David Petraeus told reporters before meeting Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who was visiting Iraq.

"We see this as requiring a continued amount of very tough work. We see Al Qaeda as a very, very dangerous adversary still able to carry out attacks and an adversary that we must continue to pursue," Petraeus said.

"They have certainly demonstrated the continued ability to carry out car bomb attacks, suicide-vest attacks, suicide car bomb attacks and so forth," he said.

Though the gains are still modest – rates of violence were very high at the time when the measured declines began – the comments from the well-respected general are likely to fuel what has already been a lively debate over the effectiveness of the "surge" strategy he helped put in place.

The additional US forces in Iraq have clearly helped contribute to lower levels of violence, leading to claims of vindication from surge supporters. But US politicians have also expressed frustration that there has been little visible progress towards lasting political reconciliation among Iraq's opposed factions, worrying that could leave the gains made so far temporary.

Secretary Gates himself warned that the improvements could be fleeting, without more political compromise in the country, The Washington Post reports.

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