Pressure lifts to move against Iran thanks to new intelligence report

National Intelligence Estimate means less urgency, more resistance to US push for further sanctions.

from the December 5, 2007 edition

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Officials did not explain why the US had backed off its view that Iran continued its nuclear-weapons efforts. Given the subject's importance, it is likely that intelligence agencies have been devoting more resources to the Iranian nuclear question, and it is possible that the new conclusions reflect this.

News reports indicated that the new NIE relied on everything from news organization photos of Iranian nuclear facilities to intercepts of Iranian military communications.

The NIE may also reflect the desire on the part of analysts to not be caught overinterpreting evidence and jumping to conclusions, as they did when judging that Iraq retained weapons of mass destruction prior to the 2003 US invasion.

"Intelligence analysis is an art, not a science," says Daniel Benjamin, a senior fellow on foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

Enrichment of uranium for what Iran says are civilian purposes continues in Iran, notes Mr. Benjamin. Such technology could give Tehran important experience that could help it quickly obtain a nuclear weapon if it decides to do so.

Another round of sanctions might help curb this effort. But now more sanctions will "be very, very difficult to achieve," says Benjamin.

The good news is that Iran does not appear to be intent on obtaining the bomb at all costs – at least, not if the NIE is correct. Outside economic sanctions and pressure caused Iran to halt its program, after all.

That will give the world breathing space with which to develop a coherent negotiating strategy, say experts.

"The US intelligence community analysis indicates that it is highly probable that the US and the international community have some 4 to 7 years to negotiate before Iran could become a nuclear power," writes CSIS military expert Anthony Cordesman in an analysis of the NIE. "It provides a major argument against any early military action against Iran, and it refutes much of the hard-line rhetoric emerging from various neoconservatives."

In broad terms, the NIE supports the pro-negotiation stance of Secretary of StateCondoleezza Rice, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and others. "Two days ago, the smart approach to Iran was a mixture of pressure and engagement. Today, the smart approach to Iran is still a mix of pressure and engagement," says Mr. Levi.

One nation that does not appear swayed by the new report is Israel. Israeli government officials insisted Tuesday that Iran is still seeking nuclear weapons, despite the NIE's conclusions.

"Iran is probably continuing its program of producing a nuclear bomb," Defense Minster Ehud Barak told Israeli army radio.

Israel considers Iran a dire regional threat, due to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's continued threats that Israel should be wiped off the map and Iran's support for the Palestinian Hamas movement and Lebanon's Hizbullah militia.

It is possible that now Israel will appear "overconcerned" about Iran, says Meir Javedanfar, coauthor of the book "The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran."

"This makes Israel's job trying to get consensus for sanctions on Iran now rather than later difficult. It means more countries are going to be inclined to continue negotiations with Iran rather than opt for sanctions," says Mr. Javedanfar.

But the US has been known to fumble intelligence assessments before, as in the case of prewar judgments on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. And there is always the possibility that Israel's intelligence is, in fact, superior on this question.

"There's a rift between Israel's and American's intelligence communities for sure. It seriously sets the two apart," says Javedanfar. "Just because we are friends doesn't mean we are going to share everything."

Material from the wire services was used in this report.

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