Palestinian census carries sobering subtext for Israelis

An expected spike in population could loom large in future negotiations with Israel.

By Joshua Mitnick | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

from the October 30, 2007 edition

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Ramallah, West Bank - The field worker matches the villa at 5 El Balu'a Street with a building survey map, scribbles a number in blue crayon, and then offers a brief introduction to the homeowner on what the counting means.

"I'm a representative of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and we're doing preliminary work for the census," says Raniah Haseebah, a youthful, bright-eyed statistician. "I'm giving you this questionnaire."

Palestinian survey-takers this month started going house to house for a tally that is likely to loom large over the renewed peace negotiations with Israel. But the credibility of the new census, which will also document the damage from the second Intifada in 2000, faces obstacles ranging from Israeli restrictions on pollsters' movements to charges of political meddling from the Israeli right to the skepticism of the respondents themselves.

In the decade since the inaugural Palestinian census of West Bank and Gaza residents, the politics of numbers has inspired support among Israelis to withdraw from most of the Palestinian territories. But since that last census, the trepidation among Israeli Jews to return the country to its narrow borders prior to the 1967 Six Day War has been trumped by fears of a "demographic problem": Israelis may one day wake up to find themselves a minority in control of a Palestinian Arab majority.

"At face value, a census is neutral, and it's in the interest of everyone to have it. But there are also political considerations," says Hebrew University demographer Sergio Della Pergola. "Demography plays a crucial role in the perception of the future and peace negotiations. The numbers count."

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) counted 2.6 million West Bankers and Gazans in 1997. Mr. Della Pergola expects the number to have grown to about 3.4 million. And even though Israel's population is 7.1 million, approximately one-fifth are Arab citizens and residents who identify as Palestinians. With a fertility rate that outstrips Jewish Israelis, Palestinians are expected to draw even in the not so distant future.

Still, the pressures of surviving the daily clashes and Israeli security limitations have spurred an exodus from the West Bank and Gaza – a migration for which the current census is expected to offer the first definitive figures.

"It's extremely important," says Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki. "The Intifada has seriously affected population figures. We don't know how many people left or how many people returned. No doubt this will be a major factor in the debate."

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