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| Staffers work at the press center for China's 17th party Congress, which opens Oct. 15. The event may hold clues about possible
successors to President Hu Jintao. Greg Baker/AP |
Succession a top issue at China congress
President Hu Jintao is almost certain to be elected to a second five-year term. All eyes will be on which younger leaders – and possible successors – get top posts.
By Peter Ford | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitorfrom the October 11, 2007 edition
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Beijing - Through the fog of Byzantine horse-trading presumed to be taking place behind closed doors ahead of the imminent congress of the all-powerful Communist Party, one clear change in the nature of Chinese politics is emerging, say political analysts and insiders.
In stark contrast to the tradition of paramount leaders stamping their will and imposing their successors on the ruling party, China's top communists are now building coalitions and seeking compromises among themselves that some say could pave the way for a more open form of government.
"The era of strongman politics is over. No single leader can decide things anymore" says Li Cheng, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and longtime monitor of Chinese leadership struggles. "Today you need consensus, trade-offs, checks and balances."
Nowhere is this new style more evident than in the current maneuvering to succeed President Hu Jintao, who appears to be having difficulty anointing a protégé to take over for him.
Mr. Hu is not leaving yet. The 17th party Congress that opens Oct. 15 will almost certainly elect him to a second five-year term. Instead, attention is focused on which of the younger generation of rising leaders will make it onto the party's top body, the nine-member Standing Committee and thus position himself for a bid for the General Secretary's job in 2012.
More crowded near the top
When Hu himself was elevated to the Standing Committee in 1992, handpicked by outgoing party chief Deng Xiaoping at the age of 49, he was automatically destined to lead the country one day.
Next week, however, the consensus among close observers of top-level Chinese wrangling is that two young rivals will be promoted, one associated with Hu and another from a different party faction.
"With each generation, the top leader's power has got weaker and weaker," says Li Datong, former editor of a Communist Party youth newspaper. "Hu stands out from his colleagues only by Deng's blessing, and that is not enough to give him the authority to name his own successor.
"We won't see one prince emerging," Mr. Li predicts. "There will be several new members of the central group, and in three or four years we'll see who has earned the best reputation."
Whoever eventually comes out on top is unlikely to be a standard-bearer for radical change, though.
Ideological debate does surface from time to time: In recent months, both ageing Maoists urging a return to a planned economy and liberals calling for greater political opening have voiced their opinions in party journals, newspapers, and the Internet.
But "both the left and the right have been totally marginalized," says Willy Lam, a Hong Kong-based political analyst. "They have no influence whatsoever. The center holds."
The key leaders who occupy that center differ over means, not ends, says Prof. Li Cheng, who identifies two groups playing factional politics in the corridors of power.
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