Bush's good idea on global warming

A world hungry for innovation should review a plan he adopted in Texas.

from the October 3, 2007 edition

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1. The evidence on GHG-related climate change is much fuller, and more worrying, now than it was when Kyoto was being negotiated, in the 1990s.

2. This new agreement will have to be more stringent – and longer term – than Kyoto. Kyoto was not perfect. But it was a useful first attempt to build a global response to dealing with the truly global problem of climate change. Next time, the world, including the US, must do better.

3. For decades, the US has been the world's biggest GHG emitter. That top spot is being overtaken by China, whose economic growth – and increase in GHG emissions – continues to be phenomenal. The post-Kyoto agreement certainly needs to include mandated caps on China's emissions. But China, like several other nations, is very unlikely to agree to be capped unless the US is also fully part of the process.

How much does the world need to reduce its emissions? The key GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2). The world currently emits just under 30 billion metric tons (bmTs) of it each year. Last year, the British government's high-level Stern Review on climate change judged that annual CO2 emissions need to be brought below 5 bmTs if humanity is to stop heating up the environment in this way. Currently, the US alone is emitting just under 6 bmTs a year.

The bottom line? All nations need to work together to bring emission rates radically downward. It has to be a cooperative venture. America's past and present emissions have (unintentionally) inflicted harm on others around the world, and now, foreign emissions are increasingly hurting America, too.

Yes, we will need innovation – at many levels. Conventional definitions of economic growth will have to be reconsidered. But the degree of innovation we can achieve will be strongly affected by laws, regulations, and mandates that structure the incentives of all players in a pro-innovation, pro-green direction. Bush can still play a useful role on this – if only he would follow his own earlier example.

Helena Cobban is a "Friend in Washington" with the Friends Committee on National Legislation. Her next book, "Re-engage! America and the World after Bush," will be published in March.

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