West eyes China to influence Burma's junta

Asian nations are critical, but they may not take strong action. China has long had a policy of noninterference.

By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

from the October 1, 2007 edition

Page 1 of 2

Bangkok - Having violently suppressed last week's monk-led protests, Burma's military rulers are now trying to deflect international condemnation and calls for reform. How far they succeed in resisting while keeping a lid on further unrest could hinge on the stance of influential countries in Asia.

First among them, say Western and Asian diplomats, is China, a major military and economic ally. India and countries in Southeast Asia, which have tried to coax Burma out of isolation, could also exert some leverage. By contrast, the US and other Western powers largely shun the regime, leaving them with few diplomatic tools.

But hopes that China will arm-twist Burma's generals into making concessions to defuse the crisis are probably wishful thinking and run counter to Chinese political and business interests, say analysts.

Harder to gauge, say analysts, is how far the writ of such allies extends in Burma. "China has very little influence. It is stuck with an advisory role. The basis of Burma's policy has been to shut itself off," says William Overholt, head of RAND Corp.'s Asia-Pacific research center.

A broader question, with ramifications for dealings with Sudan, Zimbabwe and other regimes, is whether China will abandon its policy of noninterference and play a role closer to that of Western powers, even if it ultimately opts for engagement over opprobrium.

China has begun to adopt a critical tone on Burma, saying it hoped the Burmese government could "properly deal with its domestic social conflicts." Premier Wen Jiabao called Sunday on Burma to seek a peaceful solution. Breaking with protocol, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) last week roundly condemned Burma, a member state, as did Japan, which said it was suspending major aid.

But in Beijing's eyes, propping up an unpopular regime on its borders may be preferable to seeing it collapse and risk being shut out by an unfriendly new government. "If the military government does not survive, a pro-Western regime will be established that would inevitably turn from China to the West for political and economic support," says Du Jifeng, a Burma analyst at the China Academy for Social Sciences.

The timing is awkward for Beijing. The Communist Party is gearing up for a crucial congress and wants a united front on policy choices, not dissension over Burma. The sight of peaceful protesters confronting an authoritarian state also has uncomfortable parallels, says Russell Moses, an analyst in Beijing. "Events in Burma raise the specter of peaceful political change in China, and that makes a lot of officials in Beijing nervous," he says.

Page 1 | 2 | Next Page