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| Taiwanese rallied on the streets of Kaohsiung on Sept. 15 to support the island-nation's bid for UN representation. Jonathan Adams |
UN bid puts Taiwan on skids with China
Taiwan's push for a seat in the UN has complicated cross-strait relations and rattled Washington.
By Jonathan Adams | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitorfrom the September 25, 2007 edition
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Taipei, Taiwan - Taiwan and China are gearing up for another season of escalating tensions that many, including Chinese President Hu Jintao, are calling a "high-risk period" for cross-strait relations.
Taipei's announcement Friday that the Olympic torch will not pass through Taiwan was one of the first major embarrassments for Beijing as it gears up for next August's Olympics.
Meanwhile, the island-nation's ruling party is pushing to join the United Nations under the name "Taiwan" – a bid the UN General Assembly rejected last Wednesday. But Taiwan plans to force the issue by holding a referendum that appears planned to help the party drum up nationalistic sentiment ahead of a presidential election next March. The US government, keen to avoid a conflict, has taken an unusually strong public stance against the vote, which officials see as a foolish provocation.
Taiwan's UN referendum may be timed for maximum political effect. But it's tapped a powerful current of Taiwanese national pride whose implications extend far beyond the next election. Beijing fears that nationalistic trend, and Washington has little sympathy for it, but in the coming years, both may well have to come to terms with it to avoid confrontation.
China sees the referendum as a step toward formal independence, which it's threatened to prevent by military force if necessary. The US, which has pledged to help defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, wants to nip any cross-strait spat in the bud. But the island's ruling party looks set to press ahead with the referendum in order to fire up supporters before they go to the polls in March.
The result won't likely be war, say analysts. But the UN push has already helped derail cross-strait talks on a range of issues, including the Olympic torch. And Washington and Beijing are concerned that the referendum could set the stage for an all-out independence push.
That's a reckoning both the US and China are keen to avoid. On Sept. 11, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Christensen described Taiwan's UN gambit as "ill-conceived and potentially quite harmful," as well as a "needless provocation."
Meanwhile, the island's political logic means there's little prospect that it will back down. The ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party is keen to hold on to power, and it's strongest when fighting on themes of Taiwanese identity. Indeed, the UN referendum issue has already helped it seize the initiative and set the agenda as the presidential campaign begins to heat up.
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