US intelligence describes 'paralyzed' Iraqi government

The release of a new intelligence assessment of the war in Iraq on Thursday has prompted several high-visibility US politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, to call for American troop withdrawals. Composed by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), the report indicates that while the troop surge in Iraq has been effective in reducing violence in "measurable but uneven improvements," it gives a grim prognosis of Iraq's government under the leadership of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Though some politicians have used the reports findings to support the war effort, others, most prominently Sen. John W. Warner (R) of Virginia, have used it as further fodder to challenge the Iraq war.

NIE offers a mixed progress report of the war. Its report, titled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive," represents the general consensus of the US's 16 intelligence agencies. Though coalition forces have made some security gains, Iraq's security forces remain incapable of operating independently of the US military and the nation's political failures ultimately threaten the security situation, says the NIE report.

We assess, to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance. Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.

The report indicated that it "implicitly criticizes" the type of large scale troop withdrawals proposed by several Democrats, including some presidential candidates. The Democratic proposals call for less focus on "manpower-intensive" operations and greater focus on supporting Iraqi troops and carrying out high speed, counterterrorism raids, reports The New York Times. While White House officials focused on this aspect of the report, their opponents drew attention to the risks posed by a weak Iraqi government, as described in the NIE assessment.

White House officials said the assessment was evidence that the American troop increase had begun to dampen violence in Iraq, that progress was possible, and that a precipitous troop withdrawal would sow chaos in the country. Democrats said the report showed that the White House had failed in its effort to use the troop increase in Iraq to promote political progress, and that it was time for the United States to change course.

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