In bellwether states, Mitt Romney surges ahead

Forget the national polls that show Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York, as the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. A credible argument can be made that Mitt Romney is the front-runner.

The former governor of Massachusetts is now consistently running first in most polls of two key early nomination races, Iowa and New Hamsphire – states where the voters are paying closest attention. Mr. Romney, the top Republican fundraiser in the first quarter of 2007, is generally expected to match or exceed that total ($20.6 million) in the second quarter and maintain his status as No. 1 in GOP presidential finances.

More money means more TV ads and organization, two other areas where Romney is already ahead in the early states, enhancing a sense of momentum. Of course, before any actual votes are cast, nothing is certain. In previous cycles, leaders in polling and fundraising have fallen flat come caucus and primary day. And in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes, the front-loading of the primaries makes the role of Iowa and New Hampshire less predictable.

But by playing the traditional Iowa-New Hampshire game, and so far doing well at it, Romney is putting the other top-tier Republican candidates on the defensive.

"Nationally, if his second-quarter fundraising numbers build on his first, then it becomes increasingly difficult to dismiss him as flavor-of-the-month," says Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.

He and other political observers in both Iowa and New Hampshire credit Romney with being the best-organized GOP candidate in both states. Romney has also gone on the air first with TV ads in those states – plus South Carolina, another early-primary state – boosting his profile and poll numbers.

Broad support in bellwether states

The latest CNN/WMUR NH Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, puts Romney at 28 percent among likely Republican voters, with Mr. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona tied at 20 percent each.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, who formed an exploratory campaign committee on June 1, came in at 11 percent in the CNN/WMUR poll. Early predictions that Mr. Thompson would hurt Romney proved unfounded, says survey center director Andy Smith, who credits Romney's early TV ad campaign with his rise in the polls. In the last CNN/WMUR poll, conducted in April, Giuliani and Senator McCain tied for the lead in New Hampshire with 29 percent each, and Romney had 17 percent.

"He's been here a lot; he's using his time here pretty well, in that he's going to multiple places whenever he comes to the state," says Mr. Smith. "He has pretty decent favorability numbers, because he was known from Massachusetts."

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