Why Bush seems unable to regain his footing

On an almost daily basis, it seems, signs are emerging that the well-oiled Bush machine of the early days is anything but that in the final quarter of George W. Bush's presidency.

From the flap over the firings of federal prosecutors to the exposé over conditions in some parts of Walter Reed Medical Center to a rare public disavowal by a former top campaign aide, President Bush is suffering the slings and arrows that often beset second-term presidents. But because of the intractable nature of the increasingly unpopular Iraq war, his chances of political recovery are slimmer than were those of the most recent presidents to serve two full terms, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, analysts say.

In the perjury trial of Vice President Dick Cheney's former top aide, I. Lewis Libby, and now in congressional hearings over the US attorneys' dismissals, the inner workings of an aggressively political White House have been laid bare. In the process, the president seems unable to move on a single initiative, particularly in the domestic arena, where cooperation with Congress is essential.

Bush himself found plenty to poke fun at in his recent appearance at the Radio and Television Correspondents' Association dinner, uttering the L-word that no second-term president wants to hear. "I have no intention of becoming a lame-duck president – unless, of course, Cheney accidentally shoots me in the leg," he quipped, referring to the vice president's hunting accident last year.

And, perhaps in the vein of truths being said in jest, Bush offered this analysis of the brouhaha over the firings of eight US attorneys: "I have to admit we really blew the way we let those attorneys go. You know you've botched it when people sympathize with lawyers."

Why does the White House appear to be in such disarray?

The easy answer is the Iraq war, which led to the Democratic takeover of Congress in last November's midterm elections, which in turn has opened the floodgates to congressional hearings and an abrupt shift in the political dynamic on all legislative business. The Democrats do not have total control of the Capitol; in the Senate, Republicans can block any bill with a filibuster. But suddenly, Bush cannot get what he wants by fashioning a slim majority based almost exclusively on Republican votes.

Still, particularly in the current showdown over legislation to fund the Iraq war, the Democrats face political risks, too. If a bill is not signed by April 15, the Pentagon says, the troops will start to suffer. If the stalemate drags on much beyond that date, with visible consequences on the ground in Iraq, the Democrats could face blame.

But in the larger scheme, anytime public debate focuses on Iraq, Bush is likely to wind up on the losing side.

"He may have a good day on the Iraq funding bill, if [Nancy] Pelosi and [Harry] Reid overstep or if they misspeak," says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, referring to the top Democrats in Congress. "But what I think is producing the president's low poll ratings are facts on the ground in Iraq."

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