The '08 money race hits crucial marker

Clinton is expected to top the field of presidential contenders this quarter, which ends Saturday.

By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the March 30, 2007 edition

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WASHINGTON - At the stroke of midnight on Saturday, the music will stop, and each presidential candidate will push the proverbial button on a key indicator of how he or she is doing: the fundraising totals for the first quarter of 2007.

Ask any of the top-tier candidates how they think the fundraising is going, and they are likely to provide a lowball estimate. For the campaign of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) of New York, that means tamping down expectations that she could report more than $30 million for the first quarter – topping both parties' fields – and hinting that Sen. Barack Obama (D) of Illinois could even beat her.

For Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, it has meant warning that his first-quarter totals could be relatively low, blaming a "late start" and Senate duties that have kept him in Washington rather than out on the fundraising circuit.

For the second-tier candidates, the trick is to convince donors that they are worth the investment, despite low poll numbers – and then do better than expected. For all the candidates, beating expectations is the name of the game. But the ultimate bottom line is that, in the 2008 presidential cycle, already in high gear, the amounts of money needed to be competitive dwarf what was required even four years ago.

"Four years ago, in the first quarter, John Edwards raised $7.4 million, and everybody was oohing and aahing," says Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "Now, to say $10 million is a bare threshold of acceptability is probably pushing it a bit. But if you're not in the $5 [million] to $6 million range, you'll have trouble."

Still, he and other analysts do not expect any candidates to be forced out of the race by their first-quarter totals. But for those not in the top tier of each major party, the goal now is to become the fourth candidate – and to make a strong push in the second quarter to break into the top tier.

On the Democratic side, with a top tier of Senators Clinton and Obama and former North Carolina Senator Edwards, analysts will be watching to see how New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut fare.

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