How analysts in the Arab world see the Iraq war

The discussion commonly turns to how the fallout from Iraq can be managed, minimizing negative regional impact.

from the March 29, 2007 edition

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This group also talked about the region-wide fallout from the US troops' current quagmirelike deployment in Iraq. They all expected to see a substantial drawdown – or perhaps a complete withdrawal – of US troops from Iraq within the next 12 to 18 months, regardless of whether Washington concludes an explicit agreement with Tehran. Dr. Abdel Moneim Said Aly, director of the Al-Ahram Center, noted that such an agreement could entail mere military coordination or a "grand bargain" between the two governments, in which all their outstanding disputes – including over Iran's nuclear program and its role in the broader Middle East – would be resolved. Agreement at any level would have vast consequences for the whole region – and the world.

Meanwhile, the broad deployment of US troops in Iraq has been transformed from an American asset in the region into a liability that erodes US power and standing.

Here in London, strategic thinker Hussein Agha told me that, for now, all of Iraq's neighbors prefer that US troops stay tied down inside Iraq, rather than withdraw. For some countries, the status quo lessens the likelihood of US attacks against them. For others, it represents a situation preferable to the regional turmoil they fear might follow US withdrawal.

Mr. Agha's judgment seems generally valid. Four years later, President Bush's decision to invade Iraq looks increasingly like British Prime Minister Anthony Eden's decision to invade Egypt's Suez region in 1956: an exercise in ill-considered military over-reach that hastened the subsequent shrinkage of a quasi-imperial power.

The burning question is how the fallout from Iraq can best be managed and the dangers that loom be minimized. Everyone I spoke to was adamant that Washington needs urgently to build a new, more straightforward relationship with Iran in which the tensions in and around Iraq can be de-escalated more effectively than currently seems possible.

They also all saw a clear linkage between US influence in the region as a whole and US policy toward the Palestinians. They argued forcefully that making real progress on attaining a final Palestinian-Israeli peace could significantly help the US manage the situation in and around Iraq. Palestinian and Arab leaders, they say, are ready for serious peace talks. They wonder if Washington has the vision and decisiveness required for real progress.

• Helena Cobban is a Friend in Washington for the Friends Committee on National Legislation. The views expressed here are her own.

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