Black voters help Obama gain ground on Clinton

The latest polls show Hillary Clinton's lead is shrinking, and Obama has pulled ahead among African-Americans.

from the March 1, 2007 edition

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Indeed, the Clinton camp had been counting on holding onto the rock-solid support among African-Americans for Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton. Initially, some blacks had expressed reservations about supporting Obama, citing concerns about his own electability in a country with persistent racial issues.

But in dramatic fashion, some black Democrats are now changing their allegiance. In the primaries, the black vote is crucial: Nationwide, one-fourth of primary voters are black, and in some of the early primary states, that number rises much higher. The very first nominating states – Iowa and New Hampshire – have few minority voters, but in South Carolina, the second state to hold a primary, the Democratic electorate is 47 percent black. Many other states are considering holding their primaries early, and the African-American vote could be key in those as well.

"New York, Illinois, and New Jersey are all talking about moving up, and they all have significant black populations," says David Bositis, an expert on the black vote at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington.

Then there's the Edwards factor. Former Senator Edwards drew strong support in South Carolina when he ran for president four years ago, and could cause problems for Clinton and Obama in 2008. In this cycle, Edwards has carved out strong support in particular among union members and the working class.

"There's no doubt that Edwards is the wild card here," says Ron Lester, a black Democratic pollster not affiliated with any 2008 candidates.

In a way, Edwards could save Clinton from a head-to-head matchup against Obama. In a three-way nomination race, Clinton may well successfully divide and conquer the other two. But if it's head to head against Obama, Clinton may find that her advantage in political experience and organization is not enough. Already, Obama is tapping into the big Democratic money centers – Hollywood and New York – that Clinton may have assumed that she would rule. Obama is also beating Clinton with the youth vote – a constituency notorious for low turnout, but the Iraq war may keep turnout higher than usual this time.

The next faceoff between Clinton and Obama will come this Sunday, when both appear in Selma, Ala., for the annual bridge-crossing, a major civil-rights commemoration. For a while, the debate around Obama centered on whether he was "black enough," given his biracial heritage. Now, the Clinton camp faces its own "black question" – can the senator hold onto the support of the voters who showed unfailing devotion to her husband?

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