In Senate, passage of Iraq resolution uncertain

Debate on whether to oppose Bush's troop 'surge' begins this week, and the risks of action – or inaction – are high for both parties.

from the February 5, 2007 edition

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"This debate is just beginning, and we intend to make a strong case that we believe that this mission ... can succeed," said Senator McCain at a briefing last week.

Senator Lieberman, who during his reelection campaign last year lost the Democratic primary largely over his support of the Iraq war, says a nonbinding resolution against the surge "will have no effect on what is happening on the ground, will discourage our troops and encourage those they are fighting."

Despite disagreement over the endgame in Iraq, consensus is growing on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue regarding benchmarks the Iraqi government should be required to meet. These include a commitment to send additional Iraqi security forces to Baghdad and a fair distribution of government resources, including oil revenues, regardless of sect or ethnicity.

"They've got to pass an oil law. They've got to amend their constitution so that all segments of that society feel that the government is for them," Bush said Saturday at an issues conference in Williamsburg, Va., to applause from House Democrats in attendance.

Back on Capitol Hill, more than a dozen Republican senators have expressed doubts about Bush's plan to add to forces in Iraq. But GOP leaders said Friday that all 49 Republican senators will block the move to a vote on the Warner-Levin resolution – including Senator Warner – unless Democrats allow votes on three other resolutions, including one that opposes a cap on troop levels and curbs on war funding.

In the run-up to Monday's debate, lawmakers have two new pieces of information. One concerns the cost of the war. Monday, Bush is expected to ask Congress to approve $245 billion for war costs through fiscal year 2008 (October 2007 through September 2008), in addition to the $70 billion already approved for the current fiscal year – higher than many senators had expected.

The other is a long-awaited report by US intelligence agencies, which concludes that prospects for success in Iraq are "daunting" even if new moves do stem violence. Given the "current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene," Iraqis will be "hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation" in the next 12 to 18 months, according to unclassified conclusions of the National Intelligence Estimate released Friday.

Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the cost of putting the additional troops in Iraq will be greater than the White House estimate of $6 billion. A CBO report released Thursday put the cost at between $9 billion and $13 billion for a four-month deployment, and between $20 billion and $27 billion for a 12-month deployment. A two-year deployment would cost about $49 billion, the report said.

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