What can Bush achieve in two years?
The final quarter of George W. Bush's presidency has begun, and a big question looms: Can he achieve anything significant in his remaining time in the White House?
The Democrats now control Congress, a fact of life that was almost palpable when President Bush delivered his State of the Union address Tuesday night in the Capitol. Despite calls for common ground and an end to partisanship, powerful forces in both parties don't see reason for compromise. And the unprecedentedly early and active start to the 2008 presidential campaign leaves little breathing room for key players to work together, away from partisan pressures.
But there is some hope. Both the Democrats in Congress and Mr. Bush, each for their own reasons, need to show accomplishments. The Democrats don't want to lose control of Congress in two years, after fighting so hard to regain it. And Bush has his legacy and the Republican Party's image to consider. Polls show the public clamoring for an end to the intense partisanship that has dominated national policymaking since the 1990s.
The first half of Bush's State of the Union speech, that portion devoted to domestic policy, was crafted to identify areas of possible cooperation between the parties. In taking that approach, the president showed a clear recognition that the political environment has changed dramatically since his reelection.
"On healthcare and certainly immigration and on energy, there is a possibility that the two sides can meet again," says Stephen Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown University in Washington. "A lot depends on the willingness of the president to compromise, and his willingness to share credit with the Democrats."
The 800-pound gorilla in the wider policy mix is Iraq. The war's unpopularity with the American people, and Bush's chronically low job-approval ratings, give him little political capital with which to work. The president's controversial decision to boost the US presence in Baghdad and Anbar Province by 21,500 troops may be absorbing whatever capital he has left.
Despite Bush's repeated pleas for Americans to give the plan a chance, including in the State of the Union, he faces increasingly bipartisan challenges to it in Congress. The biggest blow came on Monday, when Sen. John Warner of Virginia – the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee – introduced a resolution opposing the plan. Wednesday, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee began consideration of a resolution rejecting Bush's plan, with strong support from committee Democrats and at least one Republican, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.
Even supporters of the plan are challenging the president over Iraq in ways unheard of before. One supporter in the House, Republican leader John Boehner, is calling for a monthly report from the administration that would gauge progress on military, political, and social benchmarks set for Iraq.
The fact that Bush spent fully half of his State of the Union address on Iraq, Iran, and the war on terror – after much advance focus on the speech's domestic initiatives – demonstrates how central these foreign-policy matters will be to the remainder of Bush's presidency.
Still, if the potential for success in Iraq in the next two years remains an open question, the president clearly wants to show that he is not consumed by Iraq and can address matters closer to home. Among other things, he said he would soon submit a budget plan that would run in the black after five years. He called on Congress to cut the number of legislative earmarks – special-interest items slipped into bills at the last minute – by half in this session.
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