The importance of US engagement with Iran and Syria

Why did the 10 very experienced members of the Iraq Study Group lay such great stress on the need to engage politically with Iran and Syria? First, because after studying the situation in Iraq for nine long months they understood clearly that it is both "grave" and "deteriorating."

Second, because they see the need for a large-scale drawdown of the vulnerable US troop presence in Iraq, they also recognized the close link between the need for the US to move combat troops out of there "responsibly" and the need for urgent new diplomatic efforts in Iraq and the region.

A glance at a map will show why any "responsible" drawdown of US troops from Iraq requires Iran's cooperation. Iran has the longest border with Iraq and dominates Iraq's heavily populated east. In a crisis, it could easily close the sea lanes through which most US military supplies reach Iraq. It has longstanding relations with a broad range of Iraqi political groups.

It's important to recognize – as the ISG also clearly did – that the US has no viable option either for any sustained increase in the US troop strength in Iraq or even for maintaining the current US deployment for very much longer. Both the sentiments of US voters and the constraining overall size of the US military prevent that.

There has to be a drawdown. The only question is this: Will it start sooner and be relatively orderly, or will it be delayed and run an increasing risk of being chaotic? And yes, the scenarios now foreseeable do include – if the delay is too long – a humiliating emergency withdrawal reminiscent of the US evacuation from Saigon in 1975 and Allied forces' flight from Dunkirk in 1940.

Either way – whether the administration is able to fashion a policy that allows for a relatively speedy and orderly drawdown, or the drawdown is delayed and more like Dunkirk – it will need to engage in significant coordination with Iran if it is to avoid a debacle.

Recall that when the US moved its troops into position against Iraq in 1991 and again in 2003, it benefitted considerably from the connivance of both Iran and Syria with those anti-Saddam Hussein plans. Now, as the US seeks to reverse that massive movement of men and machines, it will require cooperation from Iran and all of Iraq's other neighbors (including Syria) as it does so.

The first 10 of the ISG's 79 recommendations stressed the urgency of launching a "New Diplomatic Offensive" over Iraq, and sketched out its broad outlines. The group – quite rightly – gave lower priority to other aspects of policy, such as details of the US military mission or internal Iraq reforms. Getting the regional diplomacy right, they understood, is the essential precondition for any possibility of success in other domains.

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