Like a game of high-stakes chicken set on the global stage, Turkey and the European Union have been locked in a tense standoff ahead of this week's deadline for Turkey to open its ports to Cypriot vessels or face consequences.

In a last-minute bid Thursday, the Muslim country looking to join the EU offered to provisionally open one port and one airport. But Brussels has deemed the concession insufficient and EU leaders appear likely to decide at a summit later this week to partially suspend talks on Turkey's membership.

As EU foreign ministers meet Monday to discuss the issue, some observers – particularly in Europe – see Turkey's stance as self-defeating obstinancy. But others say it is in fact fueled by a greater sense of self-confidence, the result of a surging economy and an increased sense of its own growing strategic importance, which may dampen the effects of any rupture with the EU.

"For the first time in my career I am seeing a Turkey that is quite calm and confident of itself," says Kemal Kirisci, director of the European Studies Institute at Istanbul's Bogazici University. "There is an element of confidence that is beginning to permeate the Turkish economy, and a bit of politics as well, and I see this confidence starting to permeate the Turkish foreign ministry. This is very healthy for Turkey and for the European Union."

Economically, Turkey has never been more part of Europe. Some of Europe's most venerable brands, from Bosch to Fiat and Renault, are today being manufactured in Turkey, which has grown to become the largest exporter of televisions to Europe.

But the continent's interests in Turkey may lie beyond the marketplace, experts say. With its strategic location between Europe and Asia, Turkey can act as a key conduit for delivering important goods to Europe, from Central Asian oil and natural gas to greater political influence in the Middle East. In addition, Turkey's young population could ultimately boost the productivity of a graying European population.

Mired in a deep financial crisis only a few years ago, Turkey's economy has been growing at a rate of some 7 percent for the last three years, while its formerly triple-digit inflation has been tamed to a manageable 10 percent. If it were to join the EU right now, Turkey would be the sixth-largest economy in the 25-member organization.

"Both in finance and trade, Turkey is already a big part of Europe," says Murat Yucer, an economic analyst in Istanbul. "Turkey is a big market. Ultimately, it's a solid growth story."

All of this has been attracting an increasing number of European investors, despite tensions between EU countries and Turkey.

Analysts point out that during a recent political crisis between Turkey and France over the French lower house of parliament's approval of a bill that would make it a crime to deny that the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottomans were a genocide, French businessmen worked hard to distance themselves from the legislators' actions.

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