Iraq Study Group: Shift mission, go regional

Amid signs of deepening difficulty and waning American influence in Iraq, the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group unveiled a set of recommendations Wednesday ranging from a broader regional diplomatic effort to more emphasis on training Iraqi security forces.

The report – available online and as a 160-page book in bookstores – avoids some controversial proposals. This reflects the panel's bipartisan makeup as well as a desire not to be dismissed by the White House out of hand. But it does call for increased pressure on the Iraqi government to make progress in key areas of reconciliation and governability – and to withdraw US support if progress is not made.

Saying "there is no magic formula that will solve the problems of Iraq," group co-chair James Baker III said the group believes its recommendations offer the best hope for "success" in terms of stabilizing Iraq and avoiding regional conflict. He cited 79 recommendations as included in the report. Mr. Baker, a seasoned foreign-policy realist, said the group avoided speaking of "victory" in Iraq.

The group also recommends creation of an "international Iraq support group" to help stabilize the country, specifically including Iran and Syria – two countries the White House has resisted including in its Iraq effort.

"Our most important recommendations call for new and enhanced diplomatic and political efforts in Iraq and the region, and a change in the primary mission of US forces in Iraq that will enable the United States to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly," the report says.

One downbeat note greeting the report is that, no matter how good some of its recommendations may be, it may simply have been overtaken by the deterioration of conditions on the ground in Iraq. The 10-member commission has been at work for nine months, dating back to just after a pivotal attack on a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February – as sectarian violence intensified and doubts about the abilities of the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki deepened.

"There may be some fine ideas [in the report], but my concern is that events on the ground have overtaken the ability of the actors [whom] those ideas address to influence things," says Chris Toensing, executive director of the Middle East Research and Information Project in Washington.

Most troubling, Mr. Toensing says, is a "disconnect" between the "very blunt and bleak tone" of the report's opening appraisal, and recommendations that assume a situation much more amenable to correction.

For example, he singles out one recommendation in the key area of national reconciliation, calling for reorganization of the tainted national police under the Defense Ministry. It raises the question of why the very powerful factions currently in control of the police would agree to such a measure – and who has the power to make them acquiesce?, says Toensing.

The reality is that "the US doesn't rule Iraq any more," he says, "and the Iraqi government doesn't have that kind of say outside the Green Zone."

The report does call specifically for the US to "try to engage constructively" Iran and Syria in diplomatic efforts to stabilize Iraq, given their influence in the country. The White House has previously poured cold water on that proposal, saying those two countries should first demonstrate their goodwill toward helping and not further destabilizing Iraq.

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4