Twenty-three months before the 2008 presidential election, the jockeying among hopefuls is already fierce. No fewer than two dozen men – and a woman – are running or thinking of running or being urged to run for the top spot. On an almost daily basis, exploratory committees are forming, first trips to New Hampshire are taking place, and Internet campaigns both for and against possible candidates are sprouting up.

The 2008 race is morphing so fast that four possible candidates have already dropped out. Then there's the X factor – the unprecedented front-loading of primaries and caucuses that will make it more difficult than ever for a dark horse to come out of nowhere and take the nomination.

This election is going to be "the mother of them all," Democratic adviser James Carville declared at a political conference last week. He marvels at the array of "larger than life people" definitely or possibly mounting campaigns – John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama, Al Gore, and "to make it interesting," Newt Gingrich. These are people who "change the temperature of the room" when they walk in, Mr. Carville says.

It may be a sign of the vulnerabilities of both putative front-runners – Senators McCain (R) and Clinton (D) – that so many other people are talking about running, but in the end, many political oddsmakers are still betting that today's front-runners end up facing off in November 2008. And the size of the field is likely to shrink fast.

This is good news, at least, for most news organizations, which don't have the staff to follow dozens of Oval Office wannabes all over Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, not to mention Michigan, Florida, and California, which are taking steps to hold early primaries, too.

"A big field will become a little field very quickly," says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont-McKenna College in Claremont, Calif. "I suspect a lot of the people talking of running now or even announcing exploratory committees will flunk the invisible primary."

He refers to the early fundraising, polls, and media attention that indicate whether a candidate is viable.

For now, it's the Democratic world that's buzzing, as the charismatic Senator Obama starts making moves toward a possible run; he delivers his first speech in New Hampshire next Sunday. Obama's maneuvering may have quickened the pace of other hopefuls' moves, though they deny it.

Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa has become the first fully announced Democratic candidate. Over the weekend Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana announced an exploratory committee. Team Hillary has whispered to the media that the senator is lining up support among top Democrats in New York for an increasingly likely run.

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