Ecuador latest test for Latin leftists

One is a billionaire banana tycoon who puts cash in the hands of the downtrodden while on the campaign trail. The other presidential contender in Ecuador's runoff election Sunday says the poor don't need handouts; they need a new social order.

Alvaro Noboa, the richest man in Ecuador, and his opponent Rafael Correa, who has emerged as Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez's newest darling, have wildly different views on how to direct their nation's future. Mr. Noboa says he'll maintain close ties with the US, while Mr. Correa attacks anything that suggests US dominance in his country and the region.

While this oil-rich South American nation of 13.4 million is not a major player on the world stage, Ecuador's presidential outcome could shift regional geopolitical balances – from military cooperation to free trade. "Ecuador is in a strategic position in political, regional, and economic terms," says Polibio Cordova, a pollster at Cedatos-Gallup in Quito, the nation's capital.

Ecuador is the latest test of the strength of the leftward trend that seemed to be sweeping Latin America earlier this year. In elections in Bolivia, Mexico, Peru, and Nicaragua, close races between left-leaning leaders and more conservative opponents proved to be a battleground for leftist ideals championed by Mr. Chávez of Venezuela and a more free-market approach supported by the United States. Leftist leaders won in both Bolivia and Nicaragua, while more conservative leaders won in Peru and Mexico.

In Ecuador, the two visions of Correa and Noboa divided residents in a first round vote Oct. 15, with 13 candidates vying for a spot deemed too close to call. Noboa won 27 percent of votes and Correa 23 percent. Noboa surged after that, but recent polls show Correa has closed the gap to what is now a statistical tie.

While Noboa promises to attract foreign companies with tax breaks and to build 300,000 homes a year for the poor – virtually ending the nation's housing deficit – Correa, a leftist economist and college professor, wants a constitutional assembly to dissolve a Congress he calls a group of "political mafias." He says he would not renew contracts for a US military base in Manta, Ecuador or even consider a free trade agreement with the US.

Correa is articulate and charismatic, easily drawing laughs from crowds and admired even by his critics for his brilliant mind. He earned a doctorate from the University of Illinois, and served briefly as finance minister in 2005. He says free trade will ruin small farmers. "He is not the typical neoclassical economist," says Eduardo Gamarra, an expert on Latin America at Florida International University. "He is probably the smartest of all the populists; he's the only one with a PhD."

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