Scramble to avert war after disputed Congo vote

Two weeks after a crucial presidential runoff, Congo is perched between war and peace.

With a final, but contested, count showing a nearly 20-point margin over his opponent, interim President Joseph Kabila is poised to be president in a capital city that largely voted against him.

His opponent, millionaire businessman Jean-Pierre Bemba, has rejected the results of the Oct. 29 presidential runoff. And, in a country where church leaders are often more influential than politicians, the Catholic archbishop has called on his church members to reject the results due to "systematic fraud."

The only thing preventing a return to civil war now is the frantic series of negotiations between leaders of the UN mission in Congo (MONUC) and the parties of Mr. Kabila and Mr. Bemba.

Few countries have as much impact over the future stability of Africa as does the Democratic Republic of Congo. With a territory as large as Western Europe, located in the heart of the continent, with mineral wealth that potentially makes it the richest nation in Africa, and a collection of nine smaller neighbors with rebellions of their own, Congo is the key to security in the region.

"Creating a stable Congo could have a positive ripple effect in the region," says Jason Stearns, an analyst on Central Africa for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "But the reverse is also true. A weak Congo can have a negative ripple effect, and destabilize the nations around it."

Right now diplomats in the capital say that one option for a political settlement to avert war is for Bemba to be president of the Senate, where he could remain influential and be the second most powerful under Kabila.

But Bemba's camp has hardened its position in recent days. Top members of his newly formed coalition Tuesday released a signed document claiming that vote results were manipulated and not credible, and warning the international community not to impose it's will.

International observers say voting was largely free and fair, and the election commission has rejected accusations that its count has been skewed by fraud.

But, in what observers say is a sign that Bemba is leaving the door open to accepting the results under certain conditions, he himself did not sign his camp's document.

"It's not a question of our returning to war, no way," says Fidel Babala, deputy campaign chairman of Bemba's Union for the Nation. "But we are concerned that they [Kabila's people] don't have the capacity to govern the country with more than seven provinces out of 11 voting against them."

He pauses. "I believe in God. Things will be a little hot, but in the end, it will be calm, because no one has an interest in going back to war."

Others, however, aren't so sure. Cars are clogging one main road out of the city, and there are long lines for boats to cross the river to Brazzaville, the capital of neighboring Republic of Congo. Whole neighborhoods of people who can afford to are fleeing Kinshasa in anticipation of widespread violence.

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