Ortega appears set for Nicaragua's presidency

Sixteen years after falling from power, Daniel Ortega, the former Marxist revolutionary who battled US-backed rebel forces in Nicaragua throughout the 1980s, appeared to emerge victorious in Sunday's presidential election, according to preliminary results and quick counts by two of the country's respected observer groups.

With official results in from more than 60 percent of polling stations, Mr. Ortega has 38.6 percent of the vote. He needs to win at least 35 percent and hold a lead of 5 points to avoid a December runoff election. Eduardo Montealegre, a Harvard-educated conservative backed by Washington, trails him by 8 percentage points.

The win would deal a blow to the US, which has been keeping a close eye on their old cold war foe. US politicians warned that US aid and investment would wane in this Central American country – one of the hemisphere's poorest – if Ortega, an ally of Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez, retook the helm of Nicaragua.

It would be a remarkable win for Ortega, who had lost three consecutive bids for the presidency and has, over the years, made just as many enemies in Nicaragua as in Washington. The two leading conservative candidates splintered the vote – boosting Ortega's chances to acquire enough support to avoid a runoff, which most analysts say he would lose.

But Ortega has also drawn many voters who say that 16 years of conservative, Washington-backed administrations here have left them poorer than they were. Many say they have put the war behind them and believe Ortega when he says he has evolved into the only candidate who can bring the nation together.

"The split between the conservatives is fundamental to the outcome," says Wilmar Cuarezma, who studies Nicaragua's governability at the nonprofit Institute for Nicaraguan Studies in Managua. "But most important is people feel that the conservatives abandoned the poor, that poverty has increased. Public services have gotten too expensive and are not accessible to most of the people anymore."

This sentiment mirrors a leftward trend in the region, where voters in Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, and elsewhere have demonstrated their fatigue with conservative policies.

"Countries are choosing a national capitalism," says Oscar-Rene Vargas, a political analyst in Managua who supports Ortega.

Campaign ads by Ortega's opponents depicted him in army fatigues, a reminder of the war that wreaked havoc on Nicaragua throughout the '80s. But Ortega fashioned an image makeover, touting reconciliation and solidarity. On the campaign trail, he often said the war was buried forever. He spoke often of God, said the country needed a spiritual revolution, and even adopted John Lennon's "Give Peace a Chance" as his theme song.

Apparently, the new Ortega resonated with voters. Ilario López, a retired city worker, voted for conservative candidates throughout the '90s because he says he felt they would improve the country's economy. But he has been disappointed. "I am willing to give him [Ortega] another chance," says Mr. López. "If we don't have work, we don't have money, and we all suffer. He is not a guerrilla; he is our only hope to live in peace."

Page: 1 | 2