Iraq's violence heading toward two-year high

But the violence or structure of the Iraq war does not mirror Vietnam, note historians. In that war, organized battalions of opponents overran key US and South Vietnamese positions only to be pushed back later.

Instead, the nature of Iraq's diffuse sectarian war is not about clearing and holding territory, but much more about spreading the fear that is contributing to the cleansing of Shiites and Sunnis from each others' strongholds.

Nevertheless, President Bush did admit a Tet Offensive parallel in that the violence may have an impact on US elections.

"He could be right,'' Mr. Bush told ABC News, referring to Mr. Friedman. "There's certainly a stepped-up level of violence and we're heading into elections."

In the midst of this, many average Iraqis say they are frightened and are increasingly looking to militias for protection.

Kamal Hussein, a Shiite contractor, says he doesn't go to a job site without at least six armed bodyguards, and that his work is drying up. "I've never seen a situation like this. We have killings, people fleeing our neighborhoods, joblessness and the government has no control. They're completely failing."

He lives in the northwestern neighborhood of Shoala, a Shiite outpost surrounded by Sunni neighborhoods where the Mahdi Army of militant Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr holds sway. While he acknowledges they're a party militia, he says their presence at gas stations and street corners is welcomed by many residents of the area. "The government is talking about forcing them to disarm. But we're surrounded by terrorists. If they pull out, we're finished."

Indeed, the growing popularity of groups like the Mahdi Army, widely blamed by Sunnis for running some of the capital's most violent sectarian death squads, some of which appear to have infiltrated the police forces, is a major part of the security challenge.

On Wednesday, US forces arrested top Sadr aide Sheikh Mazen al-Saedi and five of his lieutenants, describing him as "the alleged leader of a murder and kidnapping cell" in Baghdad. But Thursday, after 5,000 Sadr supporters protested on the street, Prime Minister Maliki, a Shiite Islamist whose election hinged on support from Sadr, ordered the men released.

Upon his election, Mr. Maliki had promised to take swift action to disarm Iraq's militias, and US officials at the time said they were convinced he was sincere.

Amidst the backdrop of increasing violence, a reconciliation conference between Shiite and Sunni religious leaders is scheduled to be held in Saudi Arabia Friday. A similar meeting between the sect's leading politicians is scheduled to be held in Baghdad in early November, though that meeting has already been postponed twice.

Most Iraqi's appear skeptical that such talks will yield concrete results. "They're talking about a reconciliation conference, but it's of no use when it's clear that Iraqis now are following the interests of parties, or of their own desires, rather than the national interest," says Mustafa Rahim, a primary teacher in west Baghdad. "We have a weak and reactive government, not one with clear proposals or strategy. And that's allowing outside countries to carve up the country for their own interests."

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