Why Bush is taking a more diplomatic approach on Iran

With prospects fading for tough economic sanctions against Iran anytime soon, the United States is shifting its stance even more solidly toward a diplomatic solution to Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

President Bush is sounding more conciliatory, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is approving more leeway for the Europeans to pursue talks with the Iranians – and everyone is insisting the aim is to allow Tehran the peaceful nuclear-power program it says is its only goal.

The US insists that the option of sanctions remains on the table, but the reasons for the softer approach appear to be twofold. First, Iranian officials are themselves sending mixed messages about their openness to suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for broad talks with the West. And second, international powers appear further than ever from joining to impose the sanctions they had agreed to this summer if Tehran did not suspend the nuclear activities that could lead to a bomb.

The question now niggling the US and others is whether Tehran is indeed debating the merits of backing off enrichment for the potentially more economically promising negotiations – or is just playing the international community for more time.

Iran's power circles are divided over what foreign policy to pursue, and that division is currently being played out in internal debate over the nuclear program, analysts say. What is less clear is when that debate might be settled enough to yield a clear answer to the countries – the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany – offering negotiations to Iran.

"Iran doesn't have a united front, that's clear," says Jon Wolfsthal, a nonproliferation expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. "The problem is that the default for them [in the absence of unity] is a more aggressive approach, as opposed to accepting a deal."

Just last week, Mr. Bush warned the international community against falling into a trap set by Iran, and again on Tuesday, he said Tehran is simply stalling. If that continues, he added, "We will then discuss the consequences of their stalling." But in his speech to the UN General Assembly, the president refrained from any urgent language, saying the US accepts Tehran's right to a peaceful nuclear-power program.

At the same time, Secretary of State Rice convened a meeting Tuesday night of key foreign ministers – a meeting that was originally envisioned as the setting for the next steps towards sanctions. Instead, she allowed that preliminary talks between the Europeans and Iran will proceed. Her deputy, Nicholas Burns, said those talks are already in "extra innings," but there was no hint of a precise deadline for reaching a conclusion.

That approach reflects a consistent approach on the part of the administration, Mr. Wolfsthal says, which is to let Iran convince the world it ultimately is not willing to shut down its nuclear-weapons ambitions. "I don't think anyone in the administration really expects Iran to compromise," he says. "So the whole diplomatic path has been to demonstrate to the rest of the world that Iran never was serious about a diplomatic solution."

But other analysts say the American seesaw from tough talk to more conciliatory language reflects a hard-line/ pragmatist policy divide within the administration that is not unlike the split coloring Tehran's approach.

"Iran is another chapter in the administration's internal struggle for control of foreign policy," says Joseph Cirincione, a weapons-proliferation policy expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington. "Depending on where you sit in this divide, what we're seeing in terms of Iran is either the collapse of the Bush strategy [to arrive at international sanctions], or it's all unfolding according to plan."

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