Ken Mehlman

Even Democrats acknowledge the prowess of the political machine Ken Mehlman oversees as chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

When Mehlman came to a Monitor-sponsored breakfast with national reporters on Friday, the policy-oriented National Journal magazine had just released a poll of political insiders ranking the performance of the RNC and the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

As National Journal reporter Jim Barnes notes, it is no surprise that 94 percent of Republican insiders think the RNC is doing a better job than the Democratic National Committee in the run-up to the midterm elections. The surprise is that 68 percent of the Democratic insiders agree that the RNC is out-performing the DNC.

Mehlman, a Harvard-trained lawyer who delivers his points in rapid-fire fashion, downplayed the role of organization in elections. "The reason I am confident we are going to keep our majority is not because of our operations. It is because of the candidates on the ballot," he said. "We won in '04 because of George W. Bush, not because we had a smart turnout operation. 80 percent of politics is motivating voters based on ideas, based on ideology, and based on the candidate that expresses ideas and ideology. I think what has hurt Democrats is the fact that for so long you've had uncertain trumpets leading the party. And that makes it very hard to do the rest."

The RNC chair came to visit in a week when polling data showed a change in the public's view on the issue of terrorism, which could tend to help the president and candidates tied to him. The ABC News political blog "The Note" quoted ABC polling director Gary Langer as saying, "Terrorism has inched up in importance in the 2006 midterm elections and Republicans have regained an edge in trust to handle it, helping George W. Bush's party move closer to the Democrats in congressional vote preference."

Langer noted that Republicans lead Democrats in trust to handle terrorism by a 48-41 percent margin among registered voters in the latest ABC News poll. That is a flip from a seven-point Democratic advantage last month. Part of the change came from independent voters, the key to winning elections.

Mehlman attributes a bump in the president's job approval numbers to "a combination of speeches and realities in the world that have reminded people that a lot of what he is saying makes sense."

The GOP chief did not want to make a specific numerical forecast for the Congressional elections. He declined to confirm press reports citing unnamed senior White House officials predicting Republicans would hold the Senate by a 52-48 or 53-47 margin and lose ground in the House but still maintain control there as well.

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