Political moderates imperiled

Many drivers roaring toward the beach wave, honk, or flash thumbs up to Sen. Lincoln Chafee and a gaggle of roadside campaign volunteers hoisting "Keep Chafee" signs. Some travelers don't react at all. But one woman scowls and plunges a thumb toward the dashboard.

"It's rare you see a woman [do that]," muses the Republican senator to those standing nearby. "We'll get her in the general [election]!" cries out an aide.

That's if Senator Chafee manages to get to the general election. Monday's GOP primary in Rhode Island will tell whether the soft-spoken, middle-of-the-road incumbent will survive a political climate that's unfriendly to moderates – or whether the state's Republicans prefer a candidate closer to the GOP conservative base, even if that raises the risk of losing the seat in November to a Democrat.

Campaign 2006 is proving to be a scorcher for moderates of both parties, especially in the Northeast, where at least eight of the key races for control of the House and Senate will be decided.

"Moderates in the Northeast are a disappearing species, and this could be the year of the final purge," says Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University in Providence.

Like fellow moderate Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D) of Connecticut, Chafee could lose the primary to a rival who's more aligned with the base. Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey has run an aggressive campaign, and, heading into the vote, polls show that either candidate could win.

But unlike the Connecticut primary, the Rhode Island contest is not just about Iraq or the candidate's ties to President Bush. It's about whether a politician can hold middle ground when the pull in both parties is to the extremes. It's also about contrasting candidate styles – Chafee, low-key and reflective; Mr. Laffey, high intensity and no shades of gray – in a state so small that one-on-ones with voters can still make a difference.

Chafee is the only Republican senator to have voted against the use of force in Iraq, and has bucked the Bush White House on issues ranging from tax cuts and Social Security to abortion rights and regulation of the environment. He also cast the lone GOP vote against confirmation of Samuel Alito to the US Supreme Court. His stands won him enemies among conservative activists, especially the Club for Growth, which hopes to make Chafee its second trophy this primary season.

It's also a key election for the Senate Republican establishment, which is supporting Chafee with advisers, mailings, and ads, as well as a highly targeted get-out-the-vote drive in the last 72 hours.

Early on, the National Republican Senatorial Committee urged Laffey to not get into the race, on the grounds that only a moderate could win a general election in a blue state like Rhode Island.

"The NRSC said I would make a good lieutenant governor ... a job with no power. I said to them: 'Do I look like a lieutenant governor to you?' " says Laffey, a former investment banker, who works the crowd at a Greek festival in Cranston as rapidly as he speaks. Chafee, he says, is "indecisive and irrelevant" in Washington.

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