Israel holds off on new push into Lebanon

A month and still fighting, with more than 800 people dead, it comes down to this: The current Israel-Hizbullah conflict will be a long war that could define the region for years to come; or a short one that historians will view as a few violent weeks in the turbulent trajectory of the Middle East.

The answer hangs in the balance, with Israel is sending out signals that foreshadow very different paths.

On Wednesday, Israel's security cabinet voted to expand ground operations that could include sending thousands more soldiers deep into south Lebanon, in a push military officials say would continue for at least another month. But Thursday, Israeli leaders said that was only a decision enabling a broader ground war, not an order to execute it. Israel will hold off on the incursion to give diplomats more time to work toward a cease-fire.

"It's an opportunity for diplomacy to prevail," says Gideon Meir, the deputy director-general of Israel's foreign ministry. "The military operations continue, and that's a part of the resolution of the cabinet. What is at stake now is the question of expansion."

If the United Nations Security Council, set to meet Friday, can present a draft resolution that satisfies a minimum of Israeli and Lebanese demands, Mr. Meir indicated, a cease-fire deal over the weekend could be within reach. "It's all in the hands of the Security Council," he says. "If it will not prevail, we will have no choice but to continue."

Several factors in the last few days have likely contributed to Israel's increased openness to diplomatic possibilities. One is the fighting capabilities of Hizbullah, which is proving to be a more formidable foe than during Israel's last foray into south Lebanon. That war of attrition ended with an Israeli withdrawal in 2000.

A second factor is the cracks that have begun to appear in the domestic political arena. When the security cabinet voted on Wednesday to expand ground operations, three cabinet members abstained, including former Labor party leader, Shimon Peres, show says Israel has already forfeited the element of surprise, that the incursion would endanger Israel's relations with Arab and Muslim countries.

Third and most important, many analysts here say, is the painful price Israel has been paying in soldiers' lives. On Wednesday, 15 Israeli soldiers died in heavy fighting, with more than 30 others wounded.

"The sacred cow in Israel is the life of the soldiers, not of the citizens," says Daniel Ben Simon, a columnist with the Ha'aretz daily newspaper. "It's not the military that is hesitating, it is Israel, and the price we would have to pay in our soldiers' lives. As soon as the number reaches something like a hundred, you lose the war, even if strategically or militarily, you won."

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