A score card for the war on terror
US and coalition forces scored a significant victory with the elimination of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq. But the insurgents quickly retaliated by killing three US soldiers in Iraq – two of them in a barbaric fashion. And Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's No. 2, came out with a new videotape lauding Mr. Zarqawi's martyrdom and claiming there are many more terrorists to replace leaders who have been killed.
Clearly, the removal of one more terrorist from a leadership position – although a very good thing – is far from the same thing as defeating Al Qaeda in Iraq or elsewhere. Zarqawi's death, as well as the terrorists' responses, raises the question: How is the US performing in the war in Iraq; and, maybe more significantly, in the larger global war on terror (GWOT)?
President Bush and members of his administration often note the Iraqi engagement to be a critical beachhead in the GWOT. One might then assume that a positive outcome in the insurgent war in Iraq brings about a corollary result in the GWOT. But this view is an overly simplified, misleading, and inaccurate measurement of our success in either conflict. Both counterterror and counterinsurgent effectiveness are difficult to gauge, because – unlike traditional warfare – capturing the capital or shutting down military and industrial production doesn't lead to fewer or less lethal attacks.
A number of metrics, such as body counts, group longevity, or estimates of the group's size or influence can indicate success in both types of conflict. But understanding the ultimate goals of winning each conflict dictates how we judge the efforts in combating them more precisely.
For example, in Iraq, is getting the US troops home or leaving the country capable of defending and policing itself while developing a democratic government the real measure of victory? And in the GWOT, is the real goal to wipe out all terrorism in the world, or are we actually trying to mitigate the impact on our nation?
One of the most often used methods for scoring success in Iraq or the GWOT has been the use of body counts. Coalition forces in Iraq herald the numbers of insurgents killed, and terrorists they've imprisoned, or point to the killing of Zarqawi to bolster their position. On the other side, though, are the growing numbers of US troop casualties – now more than 2,500 killed and more than 18,000 wounded.
Ultimately, though, body counts – as we should have learned from Vietnam – are an inaccurate and misleading measurement of effectiveness in terrorist or insurgent conflicts. Body counts alone do not reflect the strength or capabilities of either terrorist or insurgent groups. Rather, killing both fighter and leadership can bolster recruitment to both types of organizations.
Page: 1 | 2 
