Is Japan's support for US on the wane?

Other world leaders covet a White House state dinner, an overnight at Camp David, or a barbecue at President Bush's Crawford, Texas, ranch.

But given that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is his country's No. 1 Elvis fan, he couldn't have done better than the treatment he'll get on a trip to the United States this week: After talks at the White House Thursday, Mr. Bush will escort Mr. Koizumi to Memphis, Tenn., Friday for a personal tour of Graceland.

The nod to Koizumi's passion is a thank-you gift from the president to one of his staunchest international allies as he prepares to step down. The personal touch also suggests how much Bush appreciates Koizumi's support on issues like Iraq and international terrorism.

"A lot of world leaders expressed their sympathy and support for us after 9/11, but Koizumi was one of the first who came right out and said, 'This is terrorism, and you must win,' " says Michael Green, who served as the National Security Council's director for Asia affairs until December. "It's a key area where he and the president think alike."

Yet with Koizumi preparing to retire as prime minister this fall, questions are being asked in Washington and Tokyo about whether the closer US-Japan relations of recent years are a matter of fleeting personal chemistry – or if they stand on more solid footing. The answer is likely to have an impact on key international concerns such as Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's arms developments.

Japan can be expected to return to a less US- centric foreign policy after five years of Koizumi, some analysts say. In fact, the US should probably welcome that, they add.

"The Graceland trip reflects the closeness of the personal relationship between Bush and Koizumi. It's something that is unique in the postwar history" of the two countries, says Daniel Okimoto, chairman of the Global Research Institute at Sterling Stamos in Menlo Park, Calif. "But after Koizumi steps down, we'll see an adjustment back to something that is not so one-sided and pro-American."

As much as the Bush administration has valued Japan's solid support since 9/11, its reversion to a more multilateral foreign-policy stance could eventually work in the US interest, Mr. Okimoto says.

"Koizumi's almost knee-jerk pro- Americanism, his quickness to support Bush, have worried a lot of Japanese as a sign of support for unilateralism and hard power. And that has worried Japan's neighbors as well," he adds. "It is definitely not in US interests that Japan's relations with South Korea deteriorate, or that they have increasing problems with China."

But others believe that the adjustment in relations in recent years is more structural in nature, and is likely to withstand leadership changes.

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