After success, next steps for US?

The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, may be no more the war-ending event than was the capture of Saddam Hussein or the killing of his sons - two earlier American military victories much trumpeted at the time as turning points.

But the demise of the chief spokesman and promoter for sectarian strife in Iraq, in a precise US military operation Wednesday, nevertheless provides the Bush administration some much-needed good news in a conflict that in recent weeks had only seemed to be deteriorating. Just how the US might capitalize on what is both a tactical and psychological victory is sure to figure in discussions at Camp David Monday when President Bush meets with his national security team in a two-day session on Iraq.

What should stand out in those meetings, some experts say, is how the Zarqawi operation was made possible by information coming from Iraqi civilians around the safe house the Al Qaeda leader had recently occupied in Diyala province - and what that says about ordinary Iraqis' commitment to the new Iraq.

"We need to learn from this and find more ways to build up the Iraqi people's participation in the process of building their country," says Paul Hughes, an Army colonel who was assigned to the Iraq reconstruction effort in 2003.

"When [the] people are willing to take risks for their new country, then we will have turned a corner in this project," he recalls telling an Iraqi security official recently. "In that sense, this suggests a major step forward," says Colonel Hughes, who is now at the US Institute of Peace in Washington.

Other factors should put a lilt in the voices of the Camp David participants, including the announcement Thursday by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that he completed forming his government by filling the crucial defense and interior ministry slots. Mr. Maliki also named a minister of state for security affairs.

What that piece of the good-news puzzle highlights more than anything, some analysts say, is just how much the way forward depends increasingly on actions by the Iraqi government. The truth of that is underscored by the White House decision to follow up Monday's strategy session with a teleconference Tuesday with Maliki and members of his new government.

"So much depends now on a series of actions it is incumbent upon the Iraqi government to take, but those measures all require active US support," says Anthony Cordesman, a senior Iraq analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Building up that partnership is the most important step now."

The central question after Mr. Zarqawi's death is whether the new Iraqi government, with US support, will be able to take what Mr. Cordesman calls a "major political and propaganda victory" and exploit it. Steps that he says could give the event "lasting importance" include:

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