Third term zeal in Africa

The moves have also sparked growing criticism of Museveni from abroad, especially from former colonial power Britain, which has begun to cut aid to Uganda.

But Museveni is defiant. "If the international community has lost confidence in us, that is a compliment," he says, retorting that they have consistently failed to stop killing and genocide in Rwanda, Uganda, and Sudan. "We don't need the confidence," he says, "of people who are habitually wrong."

Among African leaders, Museveni isn't alone. Chad's Idriss Deby changed his country's constitution and will likely win a third term this year. But resulting discontent has sparked a rebellion that could force him from power - or grow into a war between Chad and Sudan.

Even Nigeria's president, who has preached democracy and peacemaking across the continent, is considering a constitutional change to allow himself a third term. Nigeria began holding public hearings Wednesday on the issue. As one third-term supporter there put it, "Do you just change your gown when it is not dirty?"

Yet this isn't the only trend. South African President Thabo Mbeki told an interviewer recently, "By the end of 2009, I will have been in a senior position in government for 15 years. I think that's too long."

In Kenya two events hint at progress. Three ministers resigned in recent weeks over corruption suspicions. And in November, the president lost a hard-fought referendum on government reform - thus proving that the power of the people and institutions are stronger than the leader. Now, says ICG's Mr. Kagwanja, "Kenya is actually poised for one of the most democratic elections in Africa in 2007."

Museveni's third-term ambitions have created a quandary for diplomats here. Western donors provide roughly half the operating budget for Museveni's government. They could cut this aid. But doing so, they argue, wouldn't hurt the president - and could spark a humanitarian crisis.

Also, donors have already invested so much. "One disincentive for donors to disengage is that he's been the darling for so long," says one Western diplomat. In 2004, the US gave Uganda, with its 27 million people, more aid than Nigeria, which has 128 million people, or South Africa, which has 44 million.

To be sure, some donors have trimmed aid. In December, Britain shifted $26 million in direct aid into humanitarian assistance, which flows to aid agencies like the UN. It froze another $8 million.

Yet, because of humanitarian concerns, many donors say they only have the carrot of persuading Museveni to retain his vaunted-leader status. "Do we have any sticks?" says the diplomat, "Not at this point."

At Museveni's last major campaign rally this week, horrors of Uganda's past leaders compared favorably with its current one.

Standing five feet tall, a sprightly widow recalls how her young husband was dragged out of their house and hanged by government agents under the regime of Obote, whom Museveni dislodged. Catherine Kachoine says her seventh child was born in their house - because she was too scared to leave to go to the hospital. Now people don't often disappear into the night, and she hasn't been stopped or harassed by police in years.

As for the future, Museveni has stated publicly he'll run for a fourth term. But that's not enough for this widow. "Me," she says, as others around her cheer, "I want a fifth term."

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