One month after Iraq's Dec. 15 election, a shift is afoot that will probably weaken Shiite political clout as the country's factions enter serious negotiations to form a new government.

Increasingly, the US is throwing its weight in Iraq behind Sunni Arabs, about 20 percent of the country, to ensure they are part of a new coalition government.

Analysts say the US is convinced reconciliation with Sunni Arabs will help stop the insurgency. There is also an American unease with the growing influence of Iran on Iraq's dominant Shiite bloc.

But Shiite leaders have responded defiantly, threatening unflinching stands that could push the country closer to full-scale civil war.

Most notably, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), among the most influential Shiite leaders, last week rejected any major changes to the Iraqi Constitution.

The right to amend the Constitution was a last-minute US-brokered clause instrumental to getting Sunni Arabs on board with the document.

"These statements are another indication that the Shiite political parties are not having the upper hand in the approach they are taking," says Saad Jawad, a political scientist at Baghdad University, and a self-identified Arab nationalist.

Leading Sunni Arab politicians have also alleged that fraud in last month's elections cost them a number of parliamentary seats. Monday, Iraq's Electoral Commission threw out the results from 227 ballot boxes, a decision the commission said would have little effect on final results to be announced Friday.

While it's clear Shiites will dominate Iraq's new parliament, their alliance may fall short of an absolute majority.

It's not just political angling and backroom dealings that are threatening Shiite influence, Mr. Jawad says. Since they control much of the government today, the Shiites are also paying politically for the recent three-fold spike in gas prices, which caused a price hike on everything from tomatoes to hair-care products.

"In the street, [Shiite politicians] have lost support because of the increase in oil prices, and the decrease in electricity supply," he says. "Things are playing against the Shiites' wishes."

In the SCIRI headquarters in Baghdad, Redha Taki, does not speak with the confidence one might expect from a leading member of Iraq's most popular political party, the anchor of a coalition that dominated last month's vote. Rather, he speaks like a man under siege.

He says the US, England, Iraq's Sunni Arabs, and his neighboring Arab countries are conspiring to undo Shiite gains.

"We are threatening that maybe in the future we will use other means, because we have a true fear," he says. "It's not possible that we are going to go back to how it was three years ago, ruled by Baathists and Saddamists with a new name. We won't accept it."

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