In St. Paul mayoral race, the biggest issue is ... Bush

By all conventional wisdom, the mayor's race here in Minnesota's capital city should be an easy win for first-term incumbent Randy Kelly.

Unemployment is low, property taxes haven't gone up, new development has come in, and most residents are happy with the direction the city is headed. A sitting mayor hasn't lost a reelection bid here in more than three decades.

But if the polls are right, Mayor Kelly faces not just defeat but a trouncing in Tuesday's election. He was defeated in the open primary by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, and the latest poll has him trailing his opponent, former city council member Chris Coleman, 66 percent to 25 percent. Kelly's mistake? This moderate Democrat endorsed President Bush last November.

It may be the clearest example yet of the ripple effect of Bush's sinking popularity. And it's drawing an unusual amount of attention. Even Sen. John Kerry (D) of Massachusetts and former New York mayors Rudy Giuliani and Ed Koch have stumped for the candidates in what would normally be a local race in a small city.

"St. Paul is Exhibit A of the damage the president's weak political standing is having on his allies," says Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. Both candidates, he notes, are moderate Democrats, and there's little difference between their platforms. "The only difference is one has a George W. mask on and the other one doesn't."

A survey by Professor Jacob's institute showed just 8 percent of Democrats supporting Mr. Kelly. Sizable portions of those who approved Kelly's handling of issues such as crime and housing said they will vote for Mr. Coleman (no relation to the state's Republican senator, Norm Coleman). And 53 percent said Kelly's endorsement of Mr. Bush would influence their votes.

In this highly Democratic town - Mr. Kerry won 73 percent of the presidential vote here - few seem prepared to forgive what they see as the ultimate act of political apostasy.

"When you endorse a political candidate you endorse his policies, and pretty much everything George Bush does I disagree with," says Kyle Larson, a musician and barista at Amore coffee shop. "Kelly may have done an OK job for St. Paul, but thinking in the larger picture, I just can't get past [the endorsement]."

Some St. Paulites use Bush's own term for Kerry - "flip-flopper" - to describe the endorsement, and they have a hard time accepting it from a Democrat, at a time when politics are so polarized.

"Pick a party and stay with it!" says Brian DuChien, a retired hairdresser, as he drinks his morning coffee. The endorsement, he says, "was bad news, especially in light of recent discoveries in Washington." Like many others, Mr. DuChien says his vote won't be so much for Coleman as against Kelly.

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