In Al Qaeda letter, a strategic blueprint

The word that best describes the mood of the letter's writer might be "beleaguered." He laments the recent loss of a wife, son, and daughter, for one thing. He hints at money problems and asks for cash, for another. He complains that not all of his recent works have been published, and that he's lost the manuscript of his last book. He notes, parenthetically, that American Intelligence has apparently acquired his computer.

Some experts suspect that the letter is a fake, and that the CIA - not Al Qaeda bigwig Ayman al-Zawahiri - may be its true author. It was US Intelligence that made public the 13-page missive, after all.

Others call it a fascinating document, and say much of it rings true. Take the letter's description of Al Qaeda's ultimate victory, in which the US is expelled from Iraq, Israel is conquered, and all Muslims - including Shiites - are converted to an extremist version of Sunni Puritianism. That's long been the terror group's bleak vision for the future.

"If [Zawahiri] didn't write it, it was certainly someone who understands what Al Qaeda wants," says retired Brig. Gen. Russell Howard, a counterterrorism expert at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.

Posted in full last week on a US government website, the 6,000-word letter is purportedly from Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy in the Al Qaeda organization, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda's top man in Iraq.

Mr. Zarqawi and his group of Islamist insurgents are thought to be behind many of the most deadly attacks in Iraq, including suicide bombs directed at government targets and Shiite civilians. In the letter, Zawahiri thanks Zarqawi for his efforts, and says that Iraq "is now the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era." Other Islamist conflicts, such as those in Afghanistan and Chechnya, are just "groundwork."

Mr. Zawahiri then outlines what he calls Al Qaeda's incremental goals for the future. First, expel the Americans from Iraq. Second, establish an Islamic authority, or emirate, over as much Iraqi territory as possible - "i.e. in Sunni areas" - to fill the vacuum left by the departing US power.

The third stage involves extending this wave of jihad to the "secular countries neighboring Iraq." Then, according to the letter, comes a final confrontation with Israel, "because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity," and establishment of a regional caliphate in which other sects of Islam convert to Al Qaeda principles.

Zarqawi and his jihadist forces need to be ready to implement this strategy because "things may develop faster than we imagine," says Zawahiri in the letter, citing the US experience in Vietnam.

Then the admonitions begin. Beheadings of hostages, and suicide attacks against ordinary Shiites, are not helping the movement, Zawahiri warns. The Muslim masses are put off by such slaughter. Even the elite of the mujahadeen may question the correctness of picking a fight with the Shiites "at this time."

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