'Rome' is vital to HBO TV empire

The Roman "soldiers" standing guard at the outdoor launch party for HBO's pricey new series, "Rome," are stone-faced. Perhaps this isn't surprising, given the fact that they are marooned outside the torchlit festivities - where guests are giddily trying on togas, talking with fortune-tellers, and devouring grape leaves and chocolates from the buffet.

On the other hand, a serious face may be appropriate, given the stakes for HBO. Unfettered by the networks' restrictions on violence, language, and sexuality, this onetime purveyor of movie reruns and cheap pulp entertainment ("Tales from the Crypt" was one of its early series in the 1980s) has become an industry leader, offering edgy original series.

Now, like the ancient Italian city, HBO is facing questions about its own decline in importance.

Its two top shows ("The Sopranos" and "Six Feet Under") are in their final seasons, and "Sex and the City" now lives only on DVD and in syndication. But most damaging, the channel that built its reputation by having the hottest shows on TV does not currently have a breakout show that people talk about around the water cooler the next day.

HBO may have set new creative standards for the rest of TV, but its competitors have caught up and surpassed it, says Ed Robertson, a television historian and author. Recently, competing shows on other channels received multiple Emmy-award nominations, such as "Huf" on Showtime, "The Shield" and "Nip/Tuck" on FX, and "Monk" on USA, demonstrating that the kind of high quality, adventurous dramas and comedies HBO pioneered are turning up with increasing regularity elsewhere on basic cable and premium cable.

"The challenge HBO faces at the moment is coming up with another sort of cachet show like 'The Sopranos,' that can be part of the HBO mantle - or brand - that is used to attract new subscribers," says Mr. Robertson.

HBO's second act is taking place against a much more competitive background, one in which Hollywood's favorite pastime - imitation - has raised the bar for cable and network shows alike.

"People are used to the 'Sopranos,' " says the executive producer known simply as McG, who is working on "Supernatural," a fall drama for WB. The show's quality has been widely copied. As a result, he says, "people are used to shows that have a lot of cinematic weight."

And audiences now expect much more, says Jon Harmon Feldman, executive producer for "Reunion," a new drama this fall on Fox. "HBO set the mark pretty high. They reminded us how great ... scripted TV can be. They reminded us of the kinds of ambitions we could still have for TV."

The hardest HBO ingredient to copy is that ephemeral thing called "buzz." "Buzz is almost more important than Emmys or ratings or anything else," says Mr. Feldman. "Even though it might not keep [a show] on the air, it tells you you're relevant and that's pretty important."

Many industry believers say that HBO is short of new buzzworthy shows, a claim that Chairman Chris Albrecht disputes. "There are a lot of water coolers in a lot of different places," he says. "People at the water cooler in Pittsburgh might not be talking about the same thing as the people at the water cooler in Beverly Hills." He is also quick to point out that premium cable relies on subscriptions, not ratings, to float its schedule.

Currently, HBO's subscription base is still growing, with some 28 million paying customers, the largest of any premium channel. In the television business, however, there's more than one way to lead the pack, says Mr. Albrecht. With that in mind, HBO is positioning itself to be out front in the way people consume entertainment programming.

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