The rush to fight missiles aimed at planes

In 2002, Al Qaeda terrorists used two Russian-made Strela missiles in an unsuccessful attempt to bring down an Israeli-chartered airliner taking off from Mombasa, Kenya. In addition to Al Qaeda, nonstate groups confirmed to have shoulder-fired missiles include Chechen rebels, the Taliban, Tamil Tigers, Hizbullah, and FARC (the communist guerrillas in Colombia). As of 2003, according to the Congressional Research Service, there had been 35 recorded attacks against civilian aircraft, and 24 planes were shot down, killing more than 500 people.

These missiles typically home in on an aircraft engine's heat, travel faster than the speed of sound, and can reach up to three miles and 15,000 feet in altitude - easily covering the takeoff and landing profile when large aircraft are most vulnerable.

Countermeasures to confuse attacking missiles are possible and in some cases available. These include decoy flares to draw off the incoming missiles and beams of light or lasers to jam a missile's homing device. Some US military aircraft and Israeli airliners are equipped with such devices. Last year, the Department of Homeland Security contracted with three firms to develop the technology for US airliners.

But outfitting and operating commercial aircraft with antimissile systems would be very expensive

"The problem with the laser jammers is their extensive operating and maintenance costs," says Victoria Samson, a researcher at the Center for Defense Information in Washington. "To fit out the entire fleet of [6,800] US civilian aircraft, it would cost over $11 billion initially, then run up to $2.1 billion of operating costs every year."

RAND researchers put total 10-year costs for Directed Energy Infrared Countermeasures - laser jammers - (including spare parts, maintenance, and extra fuel because of the added weight) at $40 billion to outfit all US civilian aircraft.

Given "significant uncertainties" in the cost and effectiveness of countermeasures, RAND recommends a go-slow approach in deployment of antimissile devices while research and development continues.

Not everyone agrees.

"It seems to me that whatever money we invest in protecting planes would be cheap in comparison to the cost of a shoulder-fired missile hitting planes later," says Rep. Steve Israel (D) of New York. "The cost of rebuilding the airline industry from the ground up is the more prohibitive one to me."

Mr. Israel sponsored unsuccessful legislation that would have retrofitted all US commercial aircraft with equipment to defend against shoulder-fired missiles. Until that happens, he says, civil aircraft remain vulnerable to terrorists.

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