Beyond 'red-blue,' parties are riven within

Political wonks of the world, unite. Even during that moment on Wednesday when Washington wondered if it was under attack, there was probably a party animal or two who didn't want to pull themselves away from the Pew Research Center's new report, The 2005 Political Typology.

Only the fourth of its kind since 1987, and the first since 1999, the Pew survey of 2,000 adults provides the most nuanced breakdown of the American electorate since the 9/11 attacks, and stands some of the conventional wisdom of current politics on its head.

The divisions of US politics go way beyond the red-state/blue-state shorthand; in fact, the research finds "significant cleavages" within each major party that portend challenges for both as they balance the demands of their core supporters with the need to attract swing voters.

The top line contains good news for Republicans: The national security theme that shot to the fore on Sept. 11, 2001, and has remained there since, significantly altered the 2005 typology from its predecessors, to President Bush's advantage last November.

"Foreign-affairs assertiveness now almost completely distinguishes Republican-oriented voters from Democratic-oriented voters," the Pew report states. It later adds: "In contrast, attitudes relating to religion and social issues are not nearly as important in determining party affiliation."

Furthermore, while the last election was widely seen as a "battle of the bases" - with each party working hard to turn out its core, natural constituencies, while paying less attention to the groups in the middle - in fact, the swing voters held the key. Each party claims equal numbers of adherents, and it was those middle groups, including some conservative Democrats, that reelected Bush.

"The Democrats have a double problem," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. "How do they compete on these foreign-policy issues for the people in the middle? But also, how do they get ready to do that, given they have these big internal fissures?"

According to the typology, Democrats are divided over cultural issues, such as homosexuality and the government's role in morality. Both parties are divided over immigration. Republicans are divided over the role of government in helping the needy, the power of corporations, and the environment. But as long as national security remains central, the Republicans' internal differences will pale in significance.

In the Republican coalition, a new core group has emerged: Pro-Government Conservatives. According to Pew, they deviate from the usual GOP orthodoxy in believing that the government can play a positive role in society, for example by helping the poor and by issuing regulations. Members are typically younger, female, Southern, and financially pressured. They are also strongly religious and socially conservative.

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