After 24 years as the unchallenged head of Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak seemed to be cracking the door to democratic reform. He had promised a constitutional amendment to allow for a competitive presidential election.

It looked as if change, sweeping fitfully through some parts of the Middle East, might be stirring here, too.

But in the past week, there have been ominous indications about the extent of the government's commitment to change. The regime has arrested more than 1,000 political opponents, allegedly attacked an opposition group, and watered down attempts to allow for a democratic presidential election.

"This government does not want any independent political forces to appear, or for the people to live freely," charged Mohammed Akef, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition movement in Egypt, at a press conference over the weekend to complain about the arrest of 1,500 brotherhood members. The government says 600 have been arrested.

The biggest hope for political change rested in Mubarak's promise of a competitive presidential election, expected by October. But Tuesdasy, Egypt's parliament passed a constitutional amendment leaving Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) in control of who gets on the presidential ballot.

"I don't think there will be any figure with stature in the country that can run against Mubarak,'' says Mohammed Sayed Said, a political scientist at the Al Ahram Center for Strategic and International Studies in Cairo. "It will be a true farce. The elections have already lost their meaning."

The amendment requires potential candidates not affiliated with one of the legally recognized parties to garner the support of 15 percent of parliament and 10 percent of the provincial councilors in 10 out 14 provinces to get on the ballot. But the NDP controls 90 percent of parliament and 98 percent of the provincial councils.

This would apparently disqualify the Al Ghad Party of Ayman Nour. Mr. Nour, an independent parliamentarian facing criminal charges on government allegations that he forged signatures on the application for his party license, has been the most vigorous of the opposition leaders.

Members of the NDP praised the new amendment in parliament Tuesday. "This amendment is a great democratic achievement," said NDP parliament leader Kamal al-Shazly, before adding that "Egypt still needs the historical greatness and purity of Mubarak."

What the countermoves will be from reforms proponents - both domestic groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and the more secular Kifaya, or Enough, movement and foreign players like the US - remain unclear.

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