Familiar face emerges in Iran vote

From the depths of Iran's political malaise, one name keeps floating to the top as presidential elections slated for June 17 edge closer: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The former president and chairman of the powerful Expediency Council, who has been the center of political gravity more than any other politician since the 1979 Islamic revolution, has not yet stated that he will run.

Still, as if by default, Mr. Rafsanjani is being hailed by some as a pragmatic conservative who alone can bridge vicious political divides and steer Iran through foreign crises that range from its nuclear program to forging détente with the United States.

"Rafsanjani is the only one capable of containing radicalism and crises without creating new crises - a very important skill for the next four years," says Nasser Hadian-Jazy, a political scientist at Tehran University.

But Rafsanjani also has enemies, especially among hard-liners, who analysts say could block the veteran politician, just as they have tied the hands of the once-popular President Mohamad Khatami.

"It's a disaster!" says one veteran political observer in Tehran, decrying the lack of viable choices. "We [Iranians] have dropped so far that it takes this one man to come and use his considerable power to bring us back together."

"It's not to say there is enthusiasm for anyone," says the analyst, who asked not to be named. "The idea of a savior is there ... but I'm not sure Rafsanjani is as capable as before. He has lost some [influence] with the Revolutionary Guard.... They feel he's ... moved away from martyrdom and revolution."

Reformist voters who twice gave landslide victories of up to 79 percent to Mr. Khatami - and a clear mandate for change - are now so disillusioned that they may not bother to vote at all.

Hard-liners, smelling victory for their strategy of minimizing turnout - which has already brought the Tehran city council and parliament into fundamentalist hands - have chosen Ali Larijani, former state broadcast chief and now security adviser to the supreme leader, as their candidate, though other hard-line hopefuls are in the lineup.

Reform candidates are less charismatic than Khatami, and must get through a strict ideological vetting process. But the prospect of a hard-line victory may prompt an unlikely alliance between reformists and moderate conservatives, experts say, to back Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani said last month he is "completely ready" to run if no other "capable and popular person is found."

Still, he must weigh past charges of corruption and links with political killings that led voters to rebuke him in the race for the 2000 parliament, or Majlis. Rafsanjani received the fewest votes of 30 candidates elected from Tehran, and gave up his seat two days before the first session. "The issue of corruption is still there; people will decide," says Mr. Hadian-Jazy. But many elites, who debated and destroyed him, are ready to embrace Rafsanjani despite his past."

A poll published last month, based on 32,000 questionnaires from a "government organization," found that 43 percent supported Rafsanjani - more than all others combined. Trying to head off a win by the 70-year-old Rafsanjani, hard-liners tried but failed to set an age limit for presidential contenders.

Page: 1 | 2