With hands on hips and brow knit tight, Zimbabwean parliamentary hopeful Ian Kay stands on a large granite outcropping, hoping for a miracle - or at least some sunshine.

A cold driving rain has begun drenching Mr. Kay and about 600 supporters, just as the only major rally of his entire campaign is about to kick off. It could ruin weeks of work: Holding organizational meetings in caves to avoid police, cajoling skittish friends into lending him trucks despite probable harassment by ruling-party officials, and trying to outwit partisan thugs who rip down his posters moments after they're put up.

Welcome to campaigning in an "outpost of tyranny." The US calls Zimbabwe one of the world's least democratic nations. Yet the fact that Kay is holding the rally at all symbolizes a sudden openness by the government that's taking people here by surprise. Whether the thaw - just weeks before March 31 parliamentary elections - is more than superficial will be decided in key districts like Kay's.

"This is turning out to be a much more interesting election than we expected," says a Western diplomat in the capital. Still, he adds, "there's no question the electoral playing field is heavily tilted toward the ruling party."

Originally, Kay's party, the Movement for Democratic Change, had been hoping just to hold onto the 57 seats it won in 2000 in the 150-member parliament. But with the new openness, they are hoping for more, and winning tougher race's like Kay's.

The race pits Kay - a white man who was chased off his large commercial farm in 2002 during Zimbabwe's controversial land-reform program - against the nation's black defense minister, Sidney Sekeramayi, who is also the former head of Zimbabwe's feared Central Intelligence Organization.

Kay is confident he's got more supporters than Mr. Sekeramayi. But that's hardly the only issue. This district is infamous for election violence. In 2000, the MDC candidate was run out of town and his house torched. His supporters were allegedly tortured at ruling party headquarters. It's no surprise that when the MDC tried to stage a rally here, not a single person showed up. Even still, Sekeramayi won by only 63 votes.

So MDC backers were amazed at the size of the recent rally. A black unemployed former farm manager named Edward exults: "To have this rally here - wow. This is real change." Eventually the rain stops and chanting and speeches start. "Chinja, chinja," the ebullient crowd yells, using the word for "change."

But Kay knows that what really matters is the reaction of the 700 or so people standing quietly about 50 yards away. These are the town's swing voters.

They're lined up on the other side of a road, willing only to watch from afar. Police 4x4s and a band of ruling-party youths roll slowly up and down the road. "This is a small town," Edward explains. "If people see you at an MDC rally you could be in trouble."

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