The war of words over Social Security

Does Social Security face a crisis or just "problems"? Should the accounts the Bush administration wants to add to the system be called "personal" or "private"?

And should Social Security itself be viewed as an investment program - one that could be earning a higher rate of return than it is now - or is it really meant to serve as a guaranteed base of income for retirees?

In the early battle over Social Security's future, almost nothing matters more than word choices. Public opinion on solutions is fluid, infusing the debate with a sense of urgency as the administration and its opponents try to lock in support. For President Bush, getting enough of the public behind him could spell the difference between success and defeat on his No. 1 domestic priority.

"Clearly, it's early in the debate, so the nuances of the words make more difference now," says Jeff Love, research director for AARP, the largest seniors' lobby.

Still, some word choices are already clear: For Mr. Bush, "crisis" is out. Early on, he used the c-word often - pointing to projections showing Social Security eventually going "bankrupt." In his recent multistate blitz to promote personal/ private accounts, he still used the word "bankruptcy" or "bust" but not "crisis."

Polls back him up. In the latest Washington Post survey, 27 percent of respondents say Social Security is in "crisis," with 46 percent seeing "major problems" and 22 percent seeing "minor problems." But more than 70 percent of the public sees Social Security going bankrupt sooner or later.

"They sense there's a problem, that there will be insolvency," says pollster John Zogby, who has surveyed the issue for the libertarian Cato Institute. "But they also have a sense that this is not the time for Paul Revere. He did not go through the streets of Boston saying, 'The British are coming - 37 years from now!' "

Then there's the question of how to characterize the White House's proposal to allow younger workers to divert part of their payroll taxes to separate accounts. At briefings, the reporter who asks about "private" accounts is quickly corrected to say "personal" accounts. Much thought has gone into this rhetorical choice.

The word "private" suggests something exclusive - such as a private club or private school - whereas "personal" suggests ownership for everyone, says Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who addressed a recent GOP retreat in West Virginia. "The word ownership is good, but saying 'opportunity to own' is even better," he adds.

Still, some of these word choices wind up being a difference without much distinction. The recent Washington Post survey found that public support for the president's plan varied little between "personal" (57 percent) and "private" (54 percent) investment accounts.

As with many issues, pollsters can manipulate results through their word choices. On Social Security, "any time you bring up any negative, it lowers Americans' support for private accounts," says Frank Newport, editor of the Gallup Poll. "So if you mention 'risk,' 'no guarantee,' or 'trillion-dollar short-term transition costs,' support will go down."

For the pro-personal-account argument, the upside is choice. "Anytime you introduce the words 'choice' and 'invest,' without qualifications, that will produce your highest support," says Mr. Newport.

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