The future of retirement and the elderly
20/20 foresight: looking to the future
As we move further into the 21st century, it's natural to wonder what the future will bring: In what kinds of houses and communities will Americans be living in 2020? What kind of jobs will people hold? Will fewer of us be married? Writers Kim Campbell, Clayton Collins, Marilyn Gardner, and Elizabeth Lund sought answers to these questions - and more - from eight experts whose jobs require them to predict what our lives will be like in 15 years. Read excerpts from those interviews in this section.
We will have two generations occupying the group called elders. In the past we've pretty much had one group whose needs we're trying to satisfy.
In 2020, the group called the Silent Generation, born between 1924 and 1944, will be 76 and older. There's no reason to think they won't still be a vigorous voice. Baby boomers will be approximately 55 to 75.
The Silents are very civic-minded. As retirees, they want to stay active and be able to participate in the arts and in learning and volunteer activities. They want to be in a community, in an intergenerational setting.
That means as a group, they aren't as interested in moving away to Sun City and living with only older people. This is a big change. We've always made our elder communities separate. They're gated, or they're labeled as retirement communities.
Then we add the baby boomers. As a generation, they are very concerned with fitness, health, quality of life, and an undertone of spirituality. Not necessarily religion, but the broader perspective of spirituality.
Both generational groups will want to be focused on wellness. We often just think of it as physical wellness, but using the World Health Organization definition, it's intellectual, physical, emotional/social, and spiritual.
This needs to be addressed in conjunction with the housing that is established for elders in 2020.
Already architects are designing communities with pods, where apartments or efficiency apartments [for older residents] open up onto common areas. They recognize that people want privacy but also the opportunity to interact in a social environment.
Advances in technology could have a huge impact on opening up choices for how we live as elders. Instead of having a home healthcare worker come out and check on someone, the person might put a hand on the computer screen. That information would be sent to a home-health data center, and attention given only when people have a need.
Monitors in the tiles in your floor would recognize each person in the house by their weight on the tile and their gait pattern. There would be a way to know, has someone gotten up that day, or do we need to send someone to check on them? People could be able to stay in their own home longer. It won't need to look different.
We're not going to have more people in nursing homes. You've got to throw that model out and start with a whole new model, which gives me a lot of hope.
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